[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 072044
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Advisory Number  59
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...DORIAN BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.9N 63.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM ESE OF EASTPORT MAINE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Brule
* Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME
* Prince Edward Island
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East
Pubnico
* Fundy National Park to Shediac
* Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour
* Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island
* Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian
was located near latitude 43.9 North, longitude 63.9 West.  The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 30 mph
(48 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the
next 24 hours.  After that, a turn toward the east-northeast is
expected.  On the forecast track, the center of Dorian should cross
the coast of Nova Scotia near Halifax during the next few hours,
then move across eastern Nova Scotia into the Gulf of St. Lawrence
near Prince Edward Island tonight.  The center should then pass near
or over northern Newfoundland and eastern Labrador late tonight or
Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  The post-tropical cyclone is expected to weaken during the
next couple of days, and it is forecast to drop below hurricane
strength by Sunday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to
the south of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 310 miles (500 km).  Osbourne Head, Nova Scotia,
recently reported sustained winds of 68 mph (109 km/h) and a wind
gust of 88 mph (142 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are spreading across much of Nova
Scotia, and hurricane conditions are expected to spread over
portions of Nova Scotia during the next few hours.  Hurricane
conditions are also expected elsewhere in the Hurricane Warning
area later tonight.  Hurricane conditions are also possible in the
Hurricane Watch area tonight.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area tonight and Sunday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
area in Maine during the next few hours.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely in the Gulf of St.
Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova
Scotia.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Saturday Night:

Far eastern Maine...1 to 3 inches.
Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.
New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches
Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec...1 to 2 inches

These rainfall amounts could result in flash flooding.

SURF:  Large swells are increasing along the coast in Atlantic
Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next
few days.  Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the U.S. will continue for a couple of more days.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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