[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 071614
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Special Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082019
1230 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

ASCAT data received just as the previous advisory was issued
revealed that Gabrielle's center had re-formed closer to the deep
convection, and is about a degree west of where it was previously
estimated.  This new center is also now more evident in visible
satellite imagery.  The updated position deviates from the
previously issued forecast track by a large enough distance to
require the issuance of a special advisory.

Based on the re-formation of the center, the longer-term motion is
estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/19 kt.  The forecast
track has been shifted about a degree westward to account for the
corresponding westward relocation of the center.  The initial wind
radii have been adjusted based on the ASCAT data, which led to an
update in the forecast wind radii as well.  The initial intensity
of 45 kt was confirmed by the scatterometer data, so no changes
were made to the intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1630Z 31.4N  45.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 32.4N  46.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 34.0N  48.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 36.5N  49.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 39.4N  47.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 45.0N  38.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 51.5N  23.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg
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