[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  56
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...DORIAN PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.7N 68.1W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Center has adjusted the warnings for Nova
Scotia, Newfoundland, and the Lower North Shore Quebec.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Brule
* Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA
* East of Bar Harbor to Eastport ME
* Prince Edward Island
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East
Pubnico
* Fundy National Park to Shediac
* Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour
* Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island
* Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the New England coasts of the United
States should monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 39.7 North, longitude 68.1 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general motion
is expected through Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Dorian should pass to the southeast of extreme southeastern New
England this morning, and then move across Nova Scotia and
Newfoundland later today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some slight weakening is forecast, but Dorian is expected to
move over Nova Scotia with hurricane-force winds.  Thereafter,
Dorian is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical cyclone over
eastern Canada by tonight or early Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310
miles (500 km).  A NOAA buoy at Nantucket Shoals, Massachusetts,
recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a gust
of 76 mph (122 km/h).  A Weatherflow observation on Cape Cod,
Massachusetts, recently measured a wind gust of 48 mph (77 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
warning area over portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts
during the next several hours.  These conditions should spread into
the warning area in Maine by this afternoon.

Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical
cyclone, hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland beginning later today, and they
are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by tonight.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in
eastern Canada later today and tonight.

STORM SURGE: Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the
Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova Scotia.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Saturday:

Extreme Southeastern New England and far eastern Maine...1 to 3
inches.

Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.

New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches

Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec...1 to 2 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods

SURF:  Large swells are increasing along the coast in Atlantic
Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next
few days.  Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the U.S. will continue for a couple of more days.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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