[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070525
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
125 AM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Dorian is centered near 38.3N 70.2W at 07/0300 UTC or
170 nm S of Nantucket Massachusetts moving NE at 22 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is within 60 nm of the center and scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere in feeder bands north of 37N between
65W-74W. Dorian will continue moving generally NE with an
additional increase in forward speed is expected through Sunday.
On the forecast track, the center of Dorian should pass
to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England Saturday
morning, and then across Nova Scotia late Saturday. This system
is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force
winds Saturday night or Sunday while it is near or over eastern
Canada. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or the website hurricanes.gov for
more details.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is centered near 29.3N 40.9W at 07/0300
UTC or 870 nm WSW of the Azores moving NW at 16 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
well northwest of the center from 29N-33N between 39W-47W.
A turn to the west-northwest is expected on Saturday. Gabrielle
is forecast to gradually turn to the north on Sunday, then move at
a faster pace to the northeast on Monday. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or
the website hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands
extends its axis along 29W and south of 19N, moving W at 15 kt. A
1011 mb surface low is embedded on the wave centered near 14N29W.
Scattered showers are noted from 15N-17N between 28W-31W. Little,
if any, development of this disturbance is expected for the next
couple of days. Environmental conditions are likely to become more
conducive for a tropical depression to form by Tuesday or
Wednesday while the system moves westward across the tropical
Atlantic. The chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next
48 hours with this system is low.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along is now along 46W
from 05N-13N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from
07N-10N between 45W-48W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 64W and
south of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
within 100 nm across the northern portion of the wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 74W S of
18N, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered showers are over Hispaniola
and in the north-central Caribbean in the wave's environment.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W
to the low pressure mentioned in the Tropical Waves section above
near 14N29W to 09N44W. The ITCZ is from 09N47W to 09N60W. Aside
from the convection mentioned in the section above, scattered
moderate convection is moving off the coast of Africa along and
south of the monsoon trough mainly east of 17W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is dropping southward across the eastern half of the Gulf
reaching the Florida Peninsula. This front enters the waters near
27N83W to 27N86W to 29N90W. High pressure is building across the
far west Gulf, centered near 29N94W. To the southwest, a thermal
trough is developing over the Yucatan Peninsula and moving west
across the Bay of Campeche enhancing winds and convection. Latest
scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across the basin.

The cold front over the northeast Gulf will shift southward and
dissipate through early Sat. Weak high pressure will persist
across the northwest Gulf through early next week, with gentle to
moderate winds expected across the area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Scattered moderate convection is noted over the southwest
Caribbean due to the EPAC's monsoon trough proximity. This
activity is south of 12N between 79W-82W. Otherwise, upper level
ridging is keeping fair skies across most of the basin. Latest
scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades in the
central Caribbean, with light to gentle trades elsewhere.

Weak ridging will prevail north of the area through early next
week. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected through early
next week, except increasing to moderate to fresh in the south
central Caribbean Mon, then fresh to strong thereafter.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Dorian, Gabrielle and
two tropical waves moving across the basin.

A cold front enters the west Atlantic waters near 31N78W and
stretches to the coast of Florida near 29N81W. Scattered showers
are noted along this boundary. To the east, a 1017 mb high is
near 27N68W. A surface trough extends into the central Atlantic
from 31N58W to 27N62W with scattered showers. Another trough is
in the central Atlantic from 18N59W to 17N50W. This trough is
producing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 16N-22N
between 49W-59W.

Large northerly swell from distant Dorian will dominate the
waters mainly north of 28N into Sunday. A return to tranquil
marine conditions is expected next week.

$$

ERA
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