[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 070233
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082019
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 06 2019

Deep convection has persisted mainly over the northern semicircle of
Gabrielle since this afternoon, but has been trying to move a little
closer to the low-level center. The subjective intensity estimate
from TAFB suggests slight strengthening has occurred since the
previous advisory, and a recent scatterometer pass measured a
cluster of 45-kt winds. Assuming some slight undersampling in that
area by the scatterometer, the initial advisory intensity has been
increased to 50 kt.

The shear that continues to impact Gabrielle is forecast to decrease
through Saturday morning. Meanwhile, the cyclone will me moving over
waters near 29 C. And, although some dry air will continue to
surround the circulation, the cyclone should be able to gradually
strengthen over the next few days due to the other favorable
environmental conditions. After 72 hours, increasing southwesterly
shear and cooler SSTs will cause the cyclone to weaken. An
approaching mid-latitude trough, courtesy of Dorian, will help
transition Gabrielle to an extratropical cyclone by the end of the
forecast period. The only notable change to the intensity forecast
from the previous advisory was to make Gabrielle a hurricane a
little earlier, and the official advisory is very near the corrected
consensus HCCA.

Gabrielle has been moving to the northwest, or 320/16 kt. A turn to
the west-northwest is expected to occur on Saturday as the
subtropical ridge to the northeast of Gabrielle builds westward. The
aforementioned mid-latitude trough will begin to turn Gabrielle to
the north on Sunday night, then accelerate the cyclone to the
northeast from Monday through the end of the forecast period. The
official forecast is very similar to the previous one, and near the
tightly clustered consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 29.3N  40.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 30.9N  42.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 32.1N  45.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 33.7N  47.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 35.7N  48.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 40.5N  44.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 47.0N  34.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 56.1N  16.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto
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