[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 061435
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082019
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 06 2019

Although Gabrielle was without organized deep convection for most
of the past 24 hours, deep convection has quickly re-developed near
and to the north of the center this morning.  In addition, recent
ASCAT data indicate that the winds have increased since last night,
suggesting that tropical-cyclone intensification processes are
ongoing. While normally we would wait a little longer to restart the
cyclone, since the previous advisory and this one show the potential
for significant strengthening, advisories are being re-initiated so
that marine warnings that were already in place could remain.  The
initial intensity is set to 40 kt, in agreement with the ASCAT
winds.

The storm is moving faster to the northwest this morning, or
320/15.  A large ridge to the northeast of Gabrielle is forecast to
build to the north, forcing the tropical cyclone to turn west-
northwestward on Saturday.  After that time, southwesterly flow
ahead of Hurricane Dorian should turn Gabrielle quickly northward
and northeastward by early next week.  Model guidance is in
remarkably good agreement, and little change was made to the
previous NHC track forecast.

Gabrielle is currently still experiencing strong southerly shear
due to the winds around an upper-level low.  However that low is
forecast to drop southwestward, causing the storm to enter a
low-shear region by tomorrow at the same time water temperatures
rise to near 29C.  This is a recipe for at least steady
strengthening, and all of the models are much higher than the
previous cycle.  The new NHC prediction is increased at long-range
as much as continuity allows and is still below many of the model
forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/1500Z 27.3N  38.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 28.9N  40.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 30.7N  43.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 32.1N  46.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 33.4N  48.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 37.6N  47.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 42.6N  41.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 50.0N  29.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake
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