[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061204
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
803 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Dorian is centered near 35.2N 75.7W at 06/1200 UTC or
10 nm WSW of Cape Hatteras North Carolina moving NE at 14 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the center.
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere in feeder bands from
31N-40N between 71W-81W. On the forecast track, the center of
Dorian will move near or over the coast of North Carolina during
the next several hours. The center should move to the southeast of
extreme southeastern New England tonight and Saturday morning,
and then across Nova Scotia late Saturday or Saturday night.
Dorian is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone with
hurricane-force winds by Saturday night as it approaches Nova
Scotia. A few tornadoes are possible this morning across eastern
North Carolina into southeastern Virginia. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or
the website hurricanes.gov for more details.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle is centered near 25.5N 37.6W at
06/0900 UTC or 950 nm NW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at
10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Gabrielle has
30 kt of southerly wind shear over the system. Scattered moderate
convection is well north of the center from 26N-31N between 35W-
39W. Gabrielle is expected to further weaken into a post-tropical
remnant low by tonight. Thereafter, slow strengthening is
expected to occur over the weekend, and the remnants of Gabrielle
is forecast to regenerate into a tropical cyclone at that time.
See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or the website hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands
extends its axis along 24W S of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1011
mb low is embedded on the wave axis near 14N24W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 13N-17N between 24W-26W. Little if
any development of this disturbance is expected for the next
couple of days, but environmental conditions are expected to
become favorable for tropical depression formation early next
week while the system moves westward across the tropical Atlantic
Ocean.

An Atlantic tropical wave that was once associated with Gabrielle
is now along 42W S of 15N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 08N-14N between 43W-47W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 62W S
of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are within 60 nm
of the axis. Development, if any, of this system will be slow to
occur while it moves slowly northwestward.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 72W S of
17N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are over Hispaniola.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is over N Colombia from
07N-12N between 71W-77W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W
to 14N24W to 07N27W to 10N40W. The ITCZ is from 10N44W to the
coast of Venezuela near 09N60W. Aside from the convection
mentioned in the section above, scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 05N-11N between 27W-33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak 1018 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf near 28N93W.
Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the W Gulf from
22N-24N between 94W-97W. Most of the remainder of the Gulf has
fair weather. Strong subsidence is over most of the Gulf.

Weak high pressure will extend across the basin through the
weekend, with gentle to moderate winds expected. Moderate easterly
flow will prevail across the Gulf next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Scattered showers are over the Yucatan Channel. Isolated moderate
convection is over the remainder of the NW Caribbean. Further S,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW
Caribbean, E Nicaragua, and Panama.

Weak ridging will prevail north of the area through early next
week. Fresh trade winds will pulse in the S central Caribbean
today and tonight. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected
elsewhere through midweek.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Dorian, Gabrielle and
two tropical waves moving across the basin.

A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 30N78W to S Florida
near 24N82W. A weak 1018 mb high is over the W Atlantic near
28N67W. Another surface trough is over the central Atlantic from
31N60W to 26N61W. Scattered moderate convection is from 29N-33N
between 57W-60W. In the tropics, a 1012 mb low is E of the
Leeward Islands near 17N56W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 16N-21N between 50W-58W.

Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over
the central Atlantic near 26N45W producing wind shear over
Gabrielle. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 25N-31N
between 42W-48W.

Hurricane Dorian will accelerate northward away from
the region today. Large northerly swell from Dorian will dominate
the SW N Atlc through the weekend, including offshore of Florida.
A return to tranquil marine conditions is expected next week.

$$
Formosa
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