[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...CORE OF HURRICANE DORIAN BRUSHING THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 77.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Watch for
all of Nova Scotia, a Tropical Storm Watch for Prince Edward Island
and for the Magdalen Islands, and for New Brunswick from Fundy
National Park to Shediac. Also a Tropical Storm Watch was issued for
Newfoundland from Francois to Boat Harbour.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of South Santee River has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cape Fear to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* Fundy National Park to Shediac.
* Francois to Boat Harbour.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States, and Atlantic Canada, should continue to monitor
the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 77.4 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through
Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move
near or over the coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday. The
center should move to the southeast of extreme southeastern New
England Friday night and Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia
later Saturday or Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Slow weakening is expected during the next few days.
However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as the
center moves near the coasts of South and North Carolina. Dorian is
forecast to become a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone by
Saturday night as it approaches Nova Scotia.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles
(350 km).  A Weatherflow station located Federal Point, North
Carolina, recently reported a sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) and
a gust to 75 mph (121 km/h). The Johnny Mercer Pier NOAA-NOS station
located at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, recently measured a
sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and a gust of 63 mph (101 km/h).

The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 958 mb (28.29
inches) based on a recent report of 958.9 mb (28.32 inches) from
Frying Pan Shoals buoy located in Dorian's eye.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are spreading along portions of the
North Carolina coast. Tropical storm conditions are still affecting
the northern portion of the South Carolina coast.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday and over
portions of extreme southeastern Massachusetts by late Friday or
early Saturday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cape Fear to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds.  The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday Night:

South Carolina...Additional amounts up to a half inch, isolated
storm totals of 12 inches.

Eastern North Carolina...Additional 3 to 8 inches, isolated storm
totals of 15 inches.

Far southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches.

Extreme Southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next few days.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  Tornadoes are possible through early Friday across
eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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