[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205-060230-

Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 49A
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC  AL052019
219 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

This product covers Eastern North Carolina

**LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS FROM HURRICANE DORIAN BEGIN TODAY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Duplin, Greene,
      Lenoir, Martin, and Pitt
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Northern Craven
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Beaufort, Coastal Onslow, East Carteret, Hatteras Island,
      Inland Onslow, Jones, Mainland Dare, Mainland Hyde, Northern
      Outer Banks, Ocracoke Island, Pamlico, Southern Craven,
      Tyrrell, Washington, and West Carteret

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 260 miles southwest of Buxton NC or about 180 miles
      southwest of Morehead City NC
    - 32.8N 78.9W
    - Storm Intensity 110 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 25 degrees at 8 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Dorian remains a dangerous hurricane, and will impact
eastern North Carolina through Friday night. There is still some
uncertainty regarding the exact forecast track, but Dorian is a very
large system so significant impacts are expected across all of eastern
North Carolina.

Life threatening storm surge impacts are expected with Hurricane
Dorian. Based on the current forecast, inundation of 4 to 7 feet above
ground is possible across much of the area. The greatest surge will
initially occur along the beaches, mainly south of Cape Hatteras. Very
rapid water level rise is then anticipated on the soundside Outer
Banks, and potentially Downeast Carteret County and eastern Craven
County, as the center of the storm passes, bringing life-threatening
storm surge. Significant storm surge is also possible across other
portions of the inland sounds and rivers, including the Pamlico Sound,
Albemarle Sound, Alligator River, Neuse River, Pamlico River, and
smaller tidal rivers - though the exact surge values for these areas
will be highly track-dependent, with small changes in the track
resulting in significant changes in surge values.

Very high surf and large breaking waves will likely result in moderate
to significant beach erosion and ocean overwash along the North
Carolina coast through Friday night. Overwash and sound side flooding
will likely cause issues on Highway 12 on the Outer Banks beginning
tonight. Vulnerable areas could experience erosion or overwash for
multiple high tide cycles.

Hurricane Dorian will produce very heavy rainfall across Eastern North
Carolina, with widespread flash flooding possible. The rainfall
forecast calls for an average of 6 to 12 inches of rainfall, with
localized higher amounts up to 15 inches where rainbands persist.
These heavy rainfall amounts in a relative short period of time will
likely produce flash flooding across eastern North Carolina later
today through Friday evening. Some minor to moderate river flooding
will also be possible Friday and into the weekend, especially for
smaller rivers and creeks east of the coastal plain. This too is track
dependent and could shift.

There remains an enhanced risk for tornadoes from showers and
rainbands associated with hurricane Dorian. The highest risk for
tornadoes will be today, with a slight risk overnight.

Tropical storm force winds could develop this morning, with the
strongest winds expected this evening through Friday afternoon.
Hurricane force winds are possible for much of the area, but are most
likely along the coast. Strong winds will have the ability to bring
down trees, damage structures, and cause widespread power outages.

Rainbands with embedded storms capable of producing several tornadoes
will move across the area throughout the day today. The threat for
isolated tornadoes may continue through the night and into the day
Friday.

Very dangerous marine conditions are expected with seas 15 to 25 feet
and higher. A high threat of rip currents will continue for all area
beaches and it is advised to stay out of the water.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive
impacts across coastal areas of eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
      accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
      with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
      debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
      washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
      barriers may become stressed.
    - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
    - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
      small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.


* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts
include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
      become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
      become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.


* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across coastal eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible significant
impacts across the inner coastal plain of eastern North Carolina.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
      of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
    - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
      homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
      uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
      Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended
preparedness actions, including possible evacuation. If ordered to
evacuate, do so immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help
keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, follow designated evacuation routes. Seek traffic
information on roadway signs, the radio, and from official sources.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Newport/Morehead City NC around 6 PM EDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$
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