[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 051454
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BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

...EYEWALL OF DORIAN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 79.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward to Fenwick
Island, Delaware, and also extended northward in the Chesapeake Bay
to Drum Point, including the Tidal Potomac River south of Cobb
Island.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Edisto Beach,
South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach SC to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Altamaha Sound GA to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the United States, and Atlantic Canada, should continue to monitor
the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 32.5 North, longitude 79.1 West.  Dorian is
moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn
toward the northeast is anticipated by tonight, and a northeastward
motion at a faster forward speed is forecast on Friday.  On the
forecast track, the center of Dorian will continue to move close to
the coast of South Carolina today, and then move near or over the
coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday.  The center should move
to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England Friday night
and Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia later on Saturday.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 110 mph (175
km/h) with higher gusts.  Slow weakening is expected during the
next few days.  However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane as the center moves near the coasts of South and North
Carolina.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).  The Weatherflow station at Winyah Bay, South Carolina,
recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind
gust of 76 mph (122 km/h).  Charleston International Airport
recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a wind
gust of 56 mph (91 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches).
NOAA buoy 41004, currently located inside the eye, has reported a
minimum pressure of 959.7 mb (28.34 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of
the Georgia and South Carolina coasts.  Hurricane conditions are
expected along portions of the South Carolina coast during the next
several hours.

Tropical storm conditions are spreading along the coast of North
Carolina, and hurricane conditions are expected to begin later
today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday, with tropical
storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Friday
or Friday night.

Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of
southeastern Massachusetts by late Friday or early Saturday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Awendaw SC to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft
Myrtle Beach SC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft
Edisto Beach SC to Awendaw SC...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds.  The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Far southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches
Extreme southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next few days.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  Tornadoes are possible through this afternoon across
eastern North Carolina and the upper South Carolina coast. The
tornado threat will continue tonight across eastern North Carolina
into southeast Virginia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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