[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMHX 051218
HLSMHX
NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>196-198-199-203>205-052030-

Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 48A
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC  AL052019
818 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

This product covers Eastern North Carolina

**LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS FROM HURRICANE DORIAN BEGIN TODAY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Duplin, Greene,
      Lenoir, Martin, and Pitt
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Northern Craven
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Beaufort, Coastal Onslow, East Carteret, Hatteras Island,
      Inland Onslow, Jones, Mainland Dare, Mainland Hyde, Northern
      Outer Banks, Ocracoke Island, Pamlico, Southern Craven,
      Tyrrell, Washington, and West Carteret

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 310 miles southwest of Buxton NC or about 230 miles
      southwest of Morehead City NC
    - 32.1N 79.3W
    - Storm Intensity 115 mph
    - Movement North-northeast or 15 degrees at 8 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Dorian remains a dangerous hurricane, and will impact
eastern North Carolina through Friday night. There is still some
uncertainty regarding the exact forecast track, but Dorian is a very
large system so significant impacts are expected across all of
eastern North Carolina.

Life threatening storm surge impacts are expected with Hurricane
Dorian. Based on the current forecast, inundation of 4 to 7 feet
above ground is possible across much of the area. The greatest surge
will initially occur along the beaches, mainly south of Cape
Hatteras. Very rapid water level rise is then anticipated on the
soundside Outer Banks, and potentially Downeast Carteret County and
eastern Craven County, as the center of the storm passes, bringing
life-threatening storm surge. Significant storm surge is also
possible across other portions of the inland sounds and rivers,
including the Pamlico Sound, Albemarle Sound, Alligator River, Neuse
River, Pamlico River, and smaller tidal rivers - though the exact
surge values for these areas will be highly track-dependent, with
small changes in the track resulting in significant changes in surge
values.

Very high surf and large breaking waves will likely result in
moderate to significant beach erosion and ocean overwash along the
North Carolina coast through Friday night. Overwash and sound side
flooding will likely cause issues on Highway 12 on the Outer Banks
beginning tonight. Vulnerable areas could experience erosion or
overwash for multiple high tide cycles.

Hurricane Dorian will produce very heavy rainfall across eastern
North Carolina, with widespread flash flooding possible. The
rainfall forecast calls for an average of 6 to 12 inches of
rainfall, with localized higher amounts up to 15 inches where
rainbands persist. These heavy rainfall amounts in a relative short
period of time will likely produce flash flooding across eastern
North Carolina later today through Friday evening. Some minor to
moderate river flooding will also be possible Friday and into the
weekend, especially for smaller rivers and creeks east of the
coastal plain. This too is track dependent and could shift.

Tropical storm force winds could develop this morning, with the
strongest winds expected this evening through Friday afternoon.
Hurricane force winds are possible for much of the area, but are
most likely along the coast. Strong winds will have the ability to
bring down trees, damage structures, and cause widespread power
outages.

Rainbands with embedded storms capable of producing several
tornadoes will move across the area throughout the day today. The
threat for isolated tornadoes may continue through the night and
into the day Friday.

Very dangerous marine conditions are expected with seas 15 to 25
feet and higher. A high threat of rip currents will continue for all
area beaches and it is advised to stay out of the water.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive
impacts across coastal areas of eastern North Carolina. Potential
impacts in this area include:
    - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
      accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
      with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
      debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
      washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
      barriers may become stressed.
    - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
    - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
      small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts
include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
      become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
      become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
      away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across coastal eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible significant
impacts across the inner coastal plain of eastern North Carolina.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions, including
possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind, falling
trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move, relocate to
a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep roadways open
for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time to get
there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle ahead of time.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Newport/Morehead City NC around 12 PM EDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net