[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1140 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Dorian is centered near 32.1N 79.3W at 05/1200 UTC or
60 nm SSE of Charleston South Carolina moving NNE at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Numerous moderate with
embedded scattered strong convection is seen within 60 nm NE quad,
120 nm SE quad, 150 nm SW quad and 120 nm NW quad. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere within
300 nm NE quad, 150 nm SE quad, 180 nm SW quad, 210 nm NW quad.
This includes over portions of eastern Georgia, South Carolina and
North Carolina. On radar, the eye is about 35 nm in diameter, and
on satellite, the eye is about 40 nm in diameter. On the forecast
track, the center of Dorian will continue to move close to the
coast of South Carolina today, and then move near or over the
coast of North Carolina tonight and Friday. The center should move
to the southeast of extreme southeastern New England Friday night
and Saturday morning, and approach Nova Scotia later on Saturday.
Dorian is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane
Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected this
morning, followed by slow weakening through Saturday. However,
Dorian is expected to remain a hurricane for the next few days.
See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or the website hurricanes.gov for more
details.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is centered near 21.9N 35.0W at 05/0900
UTC or 720 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 22N-27N between 31W-37W. Gabrielle's motion is
expected to continue for the next few days with an increase in
forward speed. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC or the website hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 17W,
from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate
convection is within 120 nm of the axis. Environmental conditions
appear to be conducive for some slow development late this week.
This system has the potential to become a tropical depression
early next week while it moves westward across the tropical
Atlantic Ocean.

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 54W, from 21N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is located about 435 nm east of the Leeward
Islands from 16N-19N between 50W-56W. Scattered showers are
elsewhere within 90 nm of the wave axis. Any development from the
northern portion of this wave is expected to be slow to occur
while it moves slowly northwestward. The chance of tropical
cyclone formation during the next 48 hours is low.

An eastern Caribbean low amplitude tropical wave extends its axis
along 67W, south of 13N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is inland over Venezuela from 01N-09N
between 64W-68W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 86W from
19N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are over the
NW Caribbean from 16N-21N between 81W-85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 16N16W to 07N24W to 11N40W to
11N46W. The ITCZ is from 11N46W to 15N52W. The ITCZ resumes near
15N56W to 12N64W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-13N
between 36W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers are over the Straits of Florida and W Cuba. The
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico has mostly fair weather. Upper
level subsidence covers most of the Gulf.

Weak high pressure will prevail across the basin through the
weekend, producing gentle to moderate winds, that will strengthen
some early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

The eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough is along
09N between 74W-84W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
south of 11N between 75W-83W.

A tropical wave along 86W will shift W of the basin tonight.
Another tropical wave near 67W over the SE Caribbean will weaken
and dissipate by tonight. A third tropical wave will enter the
eastern Caribbean Saturday. Fresh to strong tradewinds will pulse
in the S central Caribbean tonight. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to
fresh tradewinds are expected.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Dorian, Gabrielle and
two tropical waves moving across the basin.

A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 35N62W, a few hundred nm NE
of Bermuda. Scattered moderate convection is from 28N-33N between
58W-62W. Increasingly unfavorable upper-level winds, produced by
Hurricane Dorian, are expected to inhibit further development
during the next several days as the system moves northeastward
into the central north Atlantic. The chance of a tropical cyclone
developing during the next 48 hours is low.

Aside from the features described above, surface ridging prevails
across the remainder of the basin.

Hurricane Dorian will continue to move farther away from the area
to 32.7N 78.9W this afternoon, with conditions over the forecast
waters gradually improving into the weekend. The large northerly
swell from Dorian will dominate the SW N Atlc through the weekend.
Much more tranquil marine conditions are forecast by early next
week.

$$
Formosa/Hagen
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