[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 48
National Weather Service Wakefield VA  AL052019
538 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

This product covers CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE

**HURRICANE DORIAN TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
 FRIDAY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Camden, Chowan, Eastern Currituck, Pasquotank, Perquimans, and
      Western Currituck
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Bertie, Chesapeake, Hampton/Poquoson, Hertford, Isle of
      Wight, James City, Newport News, Norfolk/Portsmouth, Suffolk,
      Surry, and Virginia Beach
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Accomack, Gates,
      Gloucester, Lancaster, Mathews, Middlesex, Northampton,
      Northampton, Northumberland, Southampton, and York
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Charles City,
      Dorchester, Eastern Essex, Eastern King William, Eastern King
      and Queen, Greensville, Inland Worcester, Maryland Beaches, New
      Kent, Prince George, Richmond, Somerset, Sussex, Westmoreland,
      and Wicomico

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 520 miles south-southwest of Ocean City MD or about 400
      miles south-southwest of Norfolk VA
    - 31.7N 79.5W
    - Storm Intensity 115 mph
    - Movement North or 10 degrees at 8 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Dorian remains a dangerous hurricane and is expected to move
across or just offshore of the coastal Carolinas Thursday night into
Friday night. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact
forecast track, but significant impacts are expected across northeast
North Carolina, eastern Virginia and the lower Maryland eastern shore.

The strongest wind is expected late Thursday night into Friday across
Northeast North Carolina and Eastern Virginia. Tropical Storm force
wind could develop as early as this afternoon over Northeast North
Carolina, with the wind peaking Friday morning into Friday afternoon.
Hurricane force wind is possible, especially over coastal communities
of Northeast North Carolina. This strong wind will have the ability to
knock down trees and weak structures, and cause power outages.

Storm surge impacts are expected with Hurricane Dorian. Based on the
current forecast, inundation of 2 to 3 feet above ground is possible
from Hampton Roads into coastal Northeast North Carolina. Even a small
shift in the track could change what locations may see the most
significant inundation. Large breaking waves will likely result in
moderate to significant beach erosion and ocean overwash along the
coasts of Southeast Virginia and Northeast North Carolina. Vulnerable
areas could experience erosion at multiple high tide cycles.

Very dangerous marine conditions are expected with seas 12 to 20 feet
and potentially higher. A high threat of rip currents will continue
for all area beaches and it is advised to stay out of the water.

Hurricane Dorian will produce heavy rainfall across far southeast
Virginia and northeast North Carolina, with moderate impacts possible.
The current forecast shows the potential for some very heavy rainfall
amounts, ranging from 4 to 10 inches over southeast Virginia and
northeast North Carolina, with locally higher amounts possible along
the coast of northeast North Carolina up into the eastern Tidewater
area. Rainfall amounts over the Virginia Eastern Shore are forecast to
range from 3 to 6 inches. These heavy rainfall amounts in a relative
short period of time has the potential to produce flash flooding late
Thursday night through Friday afternoon. Small changes in the forecast
could shift the heaviest axis of rainfall further inland or just off
the coast, so continue to monitor the latest updates. Some minor to
moderate river flooding is possible Friday and into the weekend,
especially for smaller rivers and creeks.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across northeast North Carolina and southeastern
Virginia. Potential impacts include:
    - Evacuations and rescues likely due to flooding from heavy
      rainfall
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become
      dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become
      overwhelmed.
    - Flood waters enter structures within multiple communities, with
      some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Some
      escape routes inundated by flood waters. Streets, parking lots
      and underpasses could be submerged, with driving conditions
      quickly becoming dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures
      are expected with some becoming weakened or washed out.

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited
to significant impacts across eastern Virginia and the lower Maryland
eastern shore.

Elsewhere across the Virginia piedmont and central Virginia, little to
no impact is anticipated.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
across southeastern Virginia into northeast North Carolina. Potential
impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable damage to sturdy buildings, including roof,
      window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes severely
      damaged, with some destroyed. Damage accentuated by airborne
      projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted and roadway signs blown
      over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris including bridges,
      causeways, and access routes.
    - Widespread power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across eastern Virginia and the lower eastern shore.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across Hampton Roads and coastal northeast North Carolina.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Severe storm surge flooding will likely cause inundation of
      numerous roads and buildings, resulting in a threat to life and
      property. Flooding will likely extend inland from the
      waterfront and shoreline flooding homes, businesses and
      isolating some neighborhoods. Large breaking waves will result
      in additional damage near the shoreline.
    - Numerous roads flooded or washed out.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching some dunes.
    - Severe damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers is
      expected. Small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected marinas and docks.

Elsewhere across CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...interior NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE, little to no
impact is anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
northeast North Carolina. Potential impacts include:
    - A few tornadoes are expected. As a result, execution of
      emergency plans could be hindered in affected areas.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Roofs peeled off some buildings. A few chimneys toppled and
      mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned. Large tree
      tops and branches snapped off, with some trees knocked over. A
      few vehicles blown off roads.

Elsewhere across CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND THE LOWER MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE, little to no impact is anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time. Follow designated evacuation routes. Seek traffic
information on roadway signs, the radio, and from official sources.

Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose
items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
may be closed or inaccessible once strong winds arrive. Check the
latest weather forecast before departing and drive with caution.

If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have
pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.

Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
life. Always heed the advice of local officials and comply with any
orders that are issued. Remember, during the storm 9 1 1 Emergency
Services may not be able to immediately respond if conditions are
unsafe. This should be a big factor in your decision making.

Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles
can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide
poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly
ventilated area.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

If you are a visitor, be sure to know the name of the city or town in
which you are staying and the name of the county or parish in which
it resides. Listen for these locations in local news updates. Pay
attention for instructions from local authorities.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see
www.readyvirginia.gov, readync.org or mema.maryland.gov
- For the latest weather and storm information go to
weather.gov/wakefield

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Wakefield VA around NOON EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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