[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050514
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
114 AM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Dorian is centered near 31.3N 79.6W at 05/0300 UTC or
90 nm S of Charleston South Carolina moving N at 6 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 28N-35N between 77W-83W. A feeder band
is east of the center from 29N-35W between 75W-76W. On the
forecast track, the center of Dorian will continue to approach the
coast of South Carolina tonight, move near or over the coast of
South Carolina on Thursday, and then move near or over the coast
of North Carolina Thursday night and Friday. Dorian is a category
3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 12 hours,
followed by slow weakening Thursday through Friday. See the latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35
KNHC for more details. The URL for more information is:
hurricanes.gov.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is centered near 21.5N 34.4W at 05/0300
UTC or 680 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 6 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 21N-27N between 31W-37W. Gabrielle's motion is
expected to continue for the next few days with an increase in
forward speed expected late this week. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC
for more details. The URL for more information is:hurricanes.gov.

Remnants of Fernand is centered near 25.0N 99.0W at 05/0300 UTC
or 110 nm WSW of mouth of The Rio Grande moving WNW at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is inland from 25N-29N between 99W-104W. See the last
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32
KNHC for more details. The URL for more information is:
hurricanes.gov.

A 1014 mb low pressure center is near 34N62W, to the NE of
Bermuda. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 28N-34N
between 58W-62W. Only a small decrease in the upper level winds
could result in the formation of a tropical depression in the next
day or so. However, by Saturday upper-level winds are forecast to
increase even further, making conditions unfavorable for tropical
cyclone formation. The chance of a tropical cyclone developing
during the next 48 hours remains medium.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 53W, from 21N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 16N-22N between 50W-55W. Scattered showers are elsewhere
within 90 nm of the wave axis.

An eastern Caribbean low amplitude tropical wave extends its axis
along 65W, south of 13N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers
cover Venezuela and adjacent waters mainly south of 11N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 84W from
19N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
over the NW Caribbean from 16N-21N between 81W-85W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean
south of 11N to include Costa Rica and Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 16N16W to south of the Cape Verde
Islands near 14N25W, then resumes near 15N36W to 13N43W. The ITCZ
is from 13N43W to 13N50W. Scattered moderate convection is off the
coast of W Africa from 10N-18N between 16W-22W, and from 06N-09N
between 21W-28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers are over the Straits of Florida and W Cuba. The
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico has mostly fair weather. Upper
level subsidence covers most of the Gulf.

Fernand has dissipated over NE Mexico with the remnants of
Fernand inland near 25.0N 99.0W, 1007 mb, at 11 PM EDT, moving
WNW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35
kt. Conditions are improving in the W central and NW Gulf. Weak
high pressure will prevail across the basin for the remainder of
the week and the weekend to produce gentle to moderate winds,
strengthening some early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

The monsoon trough is along 10N, from 74W in Colombia to beyond
86W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate convection
are noted south of 11N between 77W-82W.

A tropical wave along 84W will shift W of the basin by Fri.
Another tropical wave in the SE Caribbean will shift W into the
central portion by the end of the week, then the western portion
this weekend. Fresh to strong tradewinds will pulse each night in
the S central Caribbean through early Fri. Otherwise and
elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh tradewinds are expected.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Dorian, Gabrielle,
a Special Feature low, and a tropical wave, moving across the
basin.

Aside from the features described above, surface ridging prevails
across the remainder of the basin.

Hurricane Dorian is now N of the area near 31.3N 79.6W, 955 mb at
11 PM EDT, moving N at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt
with gusts to 120 kt. Dorian will continue to move farther away
from the area to 32.2N 79.4W Thu morning, with conditions over the
forecast waters gradually improving through the end of the week.
The large northerly swell from Dorian will dominate the SW N Atlc
through Sat. Much more tranquil marine conditions are forecast for
the end of the weekend into early next week.

$$
Formosa
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