[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 47
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC  AL052019
1121 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

This product covers Eastern North Carolina

**HURRICANE DORIAN WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Duplin, Greene,
      Lenoir, Martin, and Pitt
    - A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Northern Craven
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Beaufort, Coastal Onslow, East Carteret, Hatteras Island,
      Inland Onslow, Jones, Mainland Dare, Mainland Hyde, Northern
      Outer Banks, Ocracoke Island, Pamlico, Southern Craven,
      Tyrrell, Washington, and West Carteret

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 360 miles southwest of Buxton NC or about 290 miles
      southwest of Morehead City NC
    - 31.3N 79.6W
    - Storm Intensity 115 mph
    - Movement North or 10 degrees at 7 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Dorian remains a dangerous hurricane and is expected to
move across or just offshore of the area Thursday night into Friday
night. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact forecast
track, but significant impacts are expected across Eastern North
Carolina given that Dorian is a very large system which will bring
impacts felt well away from the center.

Potentially life threatening storm surge impacts are expected with
Hurricane Dorian. Based on the current forecast, inundation of 4 to
7 feet above ground is possible oceanside from Surf City to Cape
Lookout. Inundation of 3 to 6 feet above ground level is expected
oceanside from Cape Lookout north to Duck. For the inland sounds and
rivers including the Pamlico Sound, Albemarle Sound, Alligator River,
Neuse River, Pamlico River, and smaller tidal rivers, 3 to 6 feet
above ground level of inundation is expected. The exact forecast for
most locations remains highly track-dependent, with small changes in
the track resulting in significant changes in surge values.

Very high surf and large breaking waves will likely result in moderate
to significant beach erosion and ocean overwash along the North
Carolina coast Thursday and Friday. Overwash and sound side flooding
will likely cause issues on Highway 12 on the Outer Banks Thursday
night through Friday night. Vulnerable areas could experience erosion
or overwash for multiple high tide cycles.

Hurricane Dorian will produce very heavy rainfall across Eastern North
Carolina, with widespread flash flooding possible. The rainfall
forecast calls for an average of 6 to 12 inches of rainfall, with
localized higher amounts up to 15 inches where rainbands persist.
These heavy rainfall amounts in a relative short period of time will
likely produce flash flooding across eastern North Carolina Thursday
through Friday evening. Some minor to moderate river flooding will
also be possible Friday and into the weekend, especially for smaller
rivers and creeks east of the coastal plain. This too is track
dependent and could shift.

The strongest winds are expected late Thursday night into Friday
evening. Tropical storm force winds could develop as early as
Thursday, with winds peaking late Thursday night into Friday evening.
Hurricane force winds are possible for much of the area, but are most
likely along the coast. Strong winds will have the ability to knock
down trees, damage weak structures, and cause widespread power
outages.

Isolated tornadoes are possible late tonight through Friday.

Very dangerous marine conditions are expected with seas 15 to 25 feet
and higher. A high threat of rip currents will continue for all area
beaches and it is advised to stay out of the water.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive
impacts across coastal Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
      accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
      with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
      debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
      washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
      barriers may become stressed.
    - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
    - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
      small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts
include:
    - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
      multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
      become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
      become stressed.
    - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
      communities. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
      Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
      underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
      Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across coastal Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible significant
impacts across the inner coastal plain of Eastern North Carolina.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across Eastern North Carolina. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Newport/Morehead City NC around 6 AM EDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$
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