[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
750 PM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Dorian is centered near 30.6N 79.8W at 04/2100 UTC or
130 nm S of Charleston South Carolina, moving NNW at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is observed from 28N-35N between 77W-83W. On the
forecast track, the center of Dorian will approach the coast of
South Carolina tonight, move near or over the coast of South
Carolina on Thursday, and move near or over the coast of North
Carolina Thursday night and Friday. See the latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
for more details. The URL for more information is: hurricanes.gov.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is centered near 21.0N 34.0W at 04/2100
UTC or 640 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 20N-26N between 30W-36W. Gabrielle's motion is
expected to continue through Saturday, with an increase in
forward speed expected late in the week. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC
for more details. The URL for more information is:
hurricanes.gov.

Tropical Depression Fernand is centered near 24.4N 98.3W at
04/2100 UTC or 40 nm NW of La Pesca Mexico, moving WNW at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate
convection prevails across the far northwest Gulf waters and
northeast Mexico area mainly north of 25N and west of 94W. A
steady decrease in winds is anticipated and Fernand will likely
dissipate tonight or by early Thursday. See latest NHC
forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC
for more details. The URL for more information is:
hurricanes.gov.

A 1014 mb low pressure center is near 34N63W, just to the NE of
Bermuda. Scattered moderate convection is 28N-35N between 57W-65W.
This system has become a little better defined today, but the
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Further development
of this disturbance is possible, and a tropical depression could
form during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves
northeastward away from Bermuda. By Saturday, upper-level winds
are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
The chance of a tropical cyclone developing during the next 48
hours is medium.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 51W, from 21N
southward, moving W 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 14N to 21N between 47W and 52W.

A low amplitude tropical wave extends its axis along 64W and south
of 13N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers cover Venezuela
and adjacent waters mainly south of 11N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 83W from
19N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate
convection is noted from 13N southward affecting Central America
and adjacent waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N17W to 16N22W, then resumes
near 15N37W to 13N43W. The ITCZ is from 13N43W to 13N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough
mainly east of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

T.D. Fernand is over northeast Mexico. Refer to the section above
for details.

Middle level to upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf
of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from the middle Texas coast
toward the Straits of Florida. Fair weather prevails across the
the basin.

Fernand will move to 25.0N 100.0W Thu morning, and dissipate by Thu
afternoon. Weak high pressure will then prevail across the basin
over the weekend to produce gentle to moderate winds,
strengthening some early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

The monsoon trough is along 10N, from 74W in Colombia to beyond
86W in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate convection
are noted south of 12N between 77W-82W.

A tropical wave along 83W will shift W of the basin by
Fri. Another tropical in the SE Caribbean will shift W into the
central portion by the end of the week, then the western portion
this weekend. Fresh to strong tradewinds will pulse each night
in the S central Caribbean through early Fri. Elsewhere, mainly
moderate to fresh tradewinds are expected.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details Dorian, Gabrielle, Special
Feature low, and the tropical wave moving across the basin.

Aside from the features described above, surface ridging prevails
across the remainder of the basin.

Dorian will move N of the area to 31.4N 79.8W early Thu morning,
32.7N 79.0W Thu afternoon, 34.0N 77.3W early Fri morning, 35.9N
74.4W Fri afternoon, and 42.1N 65.6W Sat afternoon. Large
northerly swell from Dorian will dominate the west Atlantic
through Sat. Much more tranquil marine conditions are forecast for
the end of the weekend into early next week.

$$

ERA
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