[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 042056
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BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS THAT DORIAN HAS STRENGTHENED A
LITTLE...
...EYE NOW EAST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 79.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward to Poquoson,
Virginia, including Hampton Roads.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the North
Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague, Virginia, and for the
Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Chincoteague,
Virginia, to Fenwick Island, Delaware, for the Chesapeake Bay from
Smith Point to Drum Point, and for the Tidal Potomac River south of
Cobb Island.

The Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning have been
discontinued south of the Flagler/Volusia County line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County line FL to Poquoson VA
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
* Hampton Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County FL line to Savannah River
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chincoteague VA to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Drum Point
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as
additional watches or warnings may be required later today.
Interests in southeastern New England should also monitor the
progress of the hurricane.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 79.8 West. Dorian is moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn to the
north is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the north-
northeast on Thursday and a turn toward the northeast on Thursday
night.  A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast
on Friday.  On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will
approach the coast of South Carolina tonight, move near or over the
coast of South Carolina on Thursday, and move near or over the coast
of North Carolina Thursday night and Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph
(175 km/h) with higher gusts.  Some fluctuations in strength are
possible tonight, followed by slow weakening Thursday through
Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).  NOAA buoy 41008 near the Georgia coast recently
reported sustained winds of 54 mph (86 km/h) and a wind gust of 60
mph (97 km/h).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter is
961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of
the Georgia and southern South Carolina coasts, and should begin
along other portions of the South Carolina coast during the next
several hours.

Tropical storm conditions will begin elsewhere within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Carolinas later today, with hurricane conditions
beginning by late tonight and Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area in the Mid-Atlantic states by Friday, with tropical
storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area Friday
or Friday night.

Tropical storm conditions along the northeastern Florida coast
should subside tonight.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft
Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft
Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds.  The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches.

Far southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches.

Atlantic Coast from Daytona Beach, Florida to the Georgia-South
Carolina border...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next several days.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible along the immediate coast
of Georgia this afternoon. Isolated tornadoes are possible from this
evening through Thursday across the coastal Carolinas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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