[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT35 KNHC 041755
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BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 45A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...EYE OF DORIAN NOW EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 79.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ENE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* North of Port Canaveral FL to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Poquoson VA, including Hampton
Roads

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Savannah River to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Volusia/Brevard County FL line to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA
* Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United
States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as
additional watches or warnings may be required later today.
Interests in southeastern New England should also monitor the
progress of the hurricane.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 79.8 West. Dorian is moving
toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue this afternoon.  A turn toward the north is
expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast on
Thursday.  On this track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move
parallel to the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast through
tonight.  The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the
coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Slow weakening is expected during the next few days.
However, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during
this time.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).  A Weatherflow station at Huguenot Park, Florida,
recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind
gust of 54 mph (87 km/h).  NOAA buoy 41008, located off the Georgia
coast, recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a
wind gust of 56 mph (90 km/h).

The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting portions of
the northeastern coast of Florida, and should begin along the
Georgia coast during the next several hours.

Tropical storm conditions will begin within the Hurricane Warning
area in the Carolinas later today, with hurricane conditions by
late tonight and Thursday.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Isle of Palms to Myrtle Beach SC...5 to 8 ft
Savannah River to Isle of Palms SC...4 to 7 ft
Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 6 ft
Volusia/Brevard County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft
North of Port Canaveral FL to Volusia/Brevard County Line FL...2 to
4 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds.  The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

Atlantic Coast from Daytona Beach, Florida to the Georgia-South
Carolina border...3 to 6 inches, with isolated 9 inches near the
Georgia coast.

Southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and
the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through
North Carolina during the next several days.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible along the immediate coast
of Georgia this afternoon. Isolated tornadoes are possible from this
evening through Thursday across the coastal Carolinas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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