[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 041433
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072019
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019

Early morning visible satellite imagery shows that the center of
Fernand is farther north than previously estimated.  Most of the
deep convection has moved inland and is located to the north and
west of the center due to easterly shear.  Dvorak T-numbers have
decreased and the area where earlier scatterometer data showed
the strongest winds were located has moved inland, so the initial
intensity has been reduced to 40 kt.  Little change in strength is
predicted before the center moves inland later today.  After that,
rapid weakening should occur while Fernand moves farther inland
tonight, and the system should dissipate over the higher terrain of
northeastern Mexico by Thursday.

The initial motion of the system is a somewhat uncertain 295/7 kt.
The cyclone should continue on a westward to west-northwestward
track to the south of a strong deep-layer ridge located over the
south-central United States.  The new NHC track forecast has been
adjusted north of the previous advisory due to the more northward
initial position, but still lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.

The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that
could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous
areas of northeastern Mexico. Radar estimates from the NOAA Doppler
weather radar in Brownsville, Texas (KBRO), indicate that 9 to 12
inches of rainfall may have already occurred across portions of
these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 24.2N  97.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 24.7N  98.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  05/1200Z 25.5N 101.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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