[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMLB 040959
HLSMLB
FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-041700-

Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 44
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL052019
559 AM EDT Wed Sep 4 2019

This product covers EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

**Hurricane Dorian Well Offshore and Moving North-Northwest, Parallel
 to the Volusia Coastline**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Hurricane Warning has been replaced with a Tropical Storm
      Warning for Brevard
    - The Tropical Storm Warning has been cancelled for Indian River,
      Martin, and St. Lucie

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Coastal Volusia
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning are in effect
      for Northern Brevard and Southern Brevard
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Inland Volusia,
      Northern Lake, Orange, Seminole, and Southern Lake

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 90 miles east of Daytona Beach FL
    - 29.2N 79.5W
    - Storm Intensity 105 mph
    - Movement North-northwest or 330 degrees at 8 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Dorian is now about 90 miles east of Daytona Beach in
Volusia County and moving north-northwest at 8 mph. Dorian will
continue moving parallel to the Volusia County coast through mid day
before turning north and moving away from east central Florida at a
faster forward speed through tonight. The latest forecast for Dorian
keeps the center of the large eye of Dorian around 80 miles offshore
Volusia County at its closest approach.

Until Dorian moves away from east central Florida, there will continue
to be a very high threat for additional beach erosion to the north of
Cape Canaveral from a combination of storm surge and wave runup. In
addition, the threat for strong to potentially damaging wind gusts,
and potential poor drainage flooding in onshore moving squalls.
Squally weather will continue farther south along the coast,
especially in Brevard County, with a slow easing of winds and squalls
overnight from Indian County southward.

The strongest winds will occur along the barrier islands of Volusia
County early this morning. Sustained winds of 40 to 50 mph will occur
as the eye of Dorian makes its closest point of approach, with gusts
up to hurricane force in squalls that move onshore. Persons in Coastal
Volusia Counties should remain indoors until winds and squalls subside
later today.

Farther south, over Brevard County both sustained wind speeds of 30 to
40 mph and gust to around 60 mph will gradually decrease as the day
progresses. Sustained winds across Indian River, have decreased to
15 to 30 mph, but may gust to Tropical Storm force in any fast moving
showers or squalls this morning.

Over interior areas from greater Orlando and Sanford northward,
sustained winds of 15 to 30 mph will gust well above tropical storm
force in squalls, potentially reaching 40 to 50 mph, and possibly as
high as 60 mph across eastern Seminole and inland Volusia Counties.
This could result in damage to trees and power lines. Torrential
downpours in these squalls could total a quick inch of rainfall, which
may cause temporary ponding of water on roads and other poor drainage
areas.

Surge may reach 3 to 5 feet above ground along the Volusia County
coastline this morning, 2 to 4 feet in Brevard County, and 1 to 2 feet
from Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet. Large battering waves and
higher than normal tides on top of the surge will add to the
destructive force of the water. Significant coastal inundation will
still occur south of the highest surge area, due to a combination of
very large breaking waves and high astronomical tides.

Strong north winds along the Volusia Coast will cause water to pile up
on the Intracoastal Waterway, including the Halifax River. Additional
coastal flooding is likely in low lying areas along the riverfront,
especially during the next high tide around 1 PM this afternoon.

Additional rainfall amounts of 2 inches are forecast over Volusia
County and adjacent sections of far northeastern Lake, eastern
Seminole, and northern Brevard Counties. Locally higher amounts are
possible along coastal Volusia County. Flooding and high water levels
on the Saint Johns River will be aggravated by any additional
rainfall.


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* SURGE:
Potential impacts from the main surge event are now unfolding across
coastal Volusia and Brevard Counties. Life-threatening surge having
additional significant impacts. These impacts include:

    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Potential impacts from the main surge event are also now unfolding
from Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet. Remain well away from locally
hazardous surge and wave runup having additional impacts.


* WIND:
Potential impacts from winds and especially squalls are now unfolding
across Volusia County. Remain well sheltered from dangerous wind having
additional significant impacts. These impacts include:

    - Roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having window, door,
      and garage door failures leading to structural damage, especially
      to mobile homes.
    - Large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway
      signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from debris, and more within urban or
      heavily wooded places.
    - Areas with power and communications outages.


Potential impacts from strong wind gusts in squalls are continuing to
unfold in Brevard, Orange, Seminole, and Lake Counties. Remain
sheltered from hazardous wind gusts from squalls having possible
limited impacts.

Elsewhere across EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Potential impacts from the flooding rain are still unfolding across
Volusia County. Remain well guarded against flooding of roads, urban
and other low lying poorly drained areas having additional impacts.
These impacts include:

    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals,
      arroyos, and ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Elsewhere across EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, little to no impact is
anticipated.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Do not enter evacuated areas until officials have given the all clear
to return. Do not enter evacuated areas until officials have given the
all clear to return.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Stay inside and away from windows. Listen for updates and be ready in
case you lose electrical power. Keep a battery- powered radio, charged
cell phone and flashlight handy.

Keep your cell phone charged and in power-saving mode. If you lose
power, use it sparingly and mainly for personal emergencies and
check-ins.

Do not be a thrill seeker or risk your life for senseless photos or
videos. This is especially true along the coast and beaches! You will
be at significant risk of being knocked down and swept out to sea by
large breaking waves and numerous strong rip currents!


NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 12 Noon EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net