[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 040240
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 03 2019

A recent scatterometer pass indicated that the low-level center was
farther south than previously thought, and that the strongest winds
of 30 kt are within a band of deep convection over the northern
semicircle. Based on these data and a blend of the subjective and
objective intensity estimates, 30 kt will be the initial intensity
for this advisory.

The depression will be in a marginally favorable environment of 10
to 15 kt of shear and over SSTs just over 26C for the next few days.
Some slight strengthening could occur during this time frame, and it
is reflected in the official forecast, bringing the intensity to 50
kt by Thursday night. After that time, the cyclone will begin to
move over warmer waters, but into a drier environment with some
increase in the wind shear. It is difficult to know at this point in
time as to what effect these conflicting conditions may have on the
cyclone's intensity. Therefore, beyond 48 hours the intensity is
held in a steady state. The official intensity forecast is just a
tad higher than the previous one, and is very near the various
intensity consensus models.

The initial motion is 320/07 kt. A general northwestward motion is
expected through the forecast period on the eastern periphery of a
subtropical ridge extending from Africa to the eastern Atlantic. An
increase in forward motion is expected late this week, as the
cyclone gets caught in the southeast flow between the ridge to its
east and a developing mid- to upper-level low to the west. The
official forecast track is slightly to the left of the previous one
through 72 hours due to the adjustment of the initial position.
Thereafter the track forecast is little changed and close to the
consensus aid TVCX.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 19.1N  32.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 19.7N  33.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 20.6N  34.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 21.6N  35.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 23.0N  36.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 27.1N  39.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 31.7N  43.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 35.4N  46.1W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto
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