[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 031444
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072019
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019

First-light visible imagery indicates that the circulation of the
low pressure area in the western Gulf of Mexico has become better
defined, and that the system has sufficient organized convection to
be designated a tropical depression.  The initial intensity of 30 kt
is based mainly on persistence from earlier scatterometer data.

The initial motion is 260/6.  A deep-layer ridge over the southern
United States is expected to steer the cyclone generally westward
to west-northwestward through its lifetime.  The new forecast track
is between the HCCA and the TVCA consensus models and calls for the
center to reach the northeastern coast of Mexico in about 36 h.
The new track is shifted a little to the north of the previous
track, but not significantly far enough to increase the threat to
south Texas.

Conditions appear conducive for gradual strengthening before the
cyclone moves into Mexico.  However, the broad and large nature of
the circulation is likely to prevent rapid intensification before
landfall.  The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous
forecast and calls for the system to become a tropical storm before
reaching Mexico, followed by dissipation over northeastern Mexico
by 72 h.

The primary threat from this system will be heavy rainfall that
could produce flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous
areas of Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 23.6N  94.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 23.4N  95.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 23.6N  96.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 24.1N  97.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 24.8N  98.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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