[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030557
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
157 AM EDT Tue Sep 3 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 03/0300 UTC, is located near
26.9N 78.5W about 30 nm NNE of Freeport Grand Bahama Island.
Dorian has an estimated central pressure of 946 mb and is
currently stationary. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with
gusts to 140 kt. Dorian is a Category 4 hurricane. The eye of
Dorian is still well-defined in satellite imagery. Numerous
strong convection is within 60 nm of the center. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 22N-30N
between 74W-80W. A slow northwestward motion is expected to occur
early Tuesday. A turn toward the north is forecast by late
Tuesday, with a northeastward motion forecast to begin by
Wednesday night. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous
Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island into
Tuesday morning. The hurricane will then move dangerously close to
the Florida east coast late Tuesday through Wednesday evening,
very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday night
and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late
Thursday and Friday. See the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. Also,
use the URL www.hurricanes.gov.

A 1007 mb low is embedded on a tropical wave near 16N31W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 12N-19N between 27W-33W. A
tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so
while the system moves generally northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean. The chance of a tropical cyclone to
develop during the next 48 hours is high.

A 1008 mb low is centered over the western Gulf of Mexico near
24N94W, with a surface trough extending from 26N93W to the low to
21N94W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 21N-27N
between 91W-98W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while the low moves slowly westward
or west-southwestward toward the coast of Mexico. Interests along
the northeast coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system. The chance of a tropical cyclone to develop during the
next 48 hours is medium.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical is along 31W from 08N-21N, moving W at 10
kt. Refer to the Special Features section above for details.

An Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W from 04N-14N, moving W at
15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 08N-12N
between 46W-53W.

A central Caribbean wave is along 73W from 08N-20N, moving W
at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over Haiti, NW
Venezuela, and N Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W
passes to 16N30W to 09N47W. The ITCZ extends from 08N52W to the
coast of Guyana near 07N59W. Aside from the convection related to
the low/tropical wave along 31W and the other wave along 50W,
scattered moderate convection is along the  coast of W Africa
from 14N-20N between 15W-20W. Widely scattered moderate convection
is also over the Atlantic from 10N-16N between 36W-45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the low
centered over the western Gulf of Mexico.

Scatterometer data depicts moderate easterly winds across most of
the basin, with locally fresh winds near the low described above.

The broad low pressure will move slowly westward towards the
coast of NE Mexico through mid week. This system has a medium
chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
Elsewhere, a feeder band from Hurricane Dorian has scattered
moderate convection over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida
from 24N- 25N between 80W- 83W.

Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over
Georgia and the Carolinas influencing the track of Hurricane
Dorian. Strong subsidence is also over the NE Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
currently across the central Caribbean.

Isolated moderate convection is over the Windward Islands from
10N-15N between 60W-64W. Similar convection is along the coast of
W Cuba from 21N-23N between 81W-84W. Scattered moderate convection
is inland over W Honduras and Guatemala. Scatterometer data
depicts gentle to moderate trades across the central Caribbean
with light to gentle trades across the rest of the basin.

Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered
over W Honduras near 15N86W enhancing convection.

The tropical wave over the central Caribbean will reach the
western Caribbean Wed and exit west of the Caribbean Sat. Moderate
to fresh winds are expected across the eastern and central
Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing over the NW
Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Hurricane Dorian,
Special Features, and tropical waves.

A surface trough is located several hundred miles south-southeast
of Bermuda from 30N63W to 25N68W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 25N-30N between 60W-67W. Some gradual development of the
disturbance is possible during the next couple of days. Afterward,
upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable for
tropical cyclone formation. Interests in Bermuda should monitor
the progress of this disturbance. The chance of a tropical cyclone
to develop during the next 48 hours is low. Over the central
Atlantic, a surface trough is over the central Atlantic from
31N40W to 28N48W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
trough. Surface ridging prevails across the rest of the basin.

Hurricane Dorian is stationary near 26.9N 78.5W 946 mb at 11 PM
EDT. Maximum sustained winds are 115 kt with gusts 140 kt. Dorian
will move to 27.1N 78.7W Tue morning, 27.9N 79.1W Tue evening,
29.2N 79.7W Wed morning, 30.6N 79.7W Wed evening, and off the
South Carolina coast near 33.7N 77.3W by Thu evening. Dorian will
slowly weaken as it continues paralleling the coast offshore the
Carolinas through Saturday.

$$
Formosa
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