[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMLB 022133
HLSMLB
FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-030600-

Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 38
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL052019
533 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019

This product covers EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

**Category 4 Hurricane Dorian Continues Nearly Stationary Over Grand
Bahama Island**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Coastal Volusia, Indian River, Martin, Northern Brevard,
      Southern Brevard, and St. Lucie
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Inland Volusia,
      Northern Lake, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and
      Southern Lake

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 170 miles southeast of Cape Canaveral FL or about 110
      miles east-southeast of Stuart FL
    - 26.8N 78.4W
    - Storm Intensity 145 mph
    - Movement Stationary

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Powerful Hurricane Dorian is nearly stationary over the
northwestern Bahamas. The situation remains serious for east central
Florida, especially the coastal counties of Martin, Saint Lucie,
Indian River, Brevard, and Volusia.

Dorian is a dangerous Category 4 hurricane with winds near 145 mph.
This evening, Dorian will continue to slowly emerge north of Grand
Bahama Island and begin moving very slowly toward the northwest, and
closer to east central Florida through tonight. As Dorian slowly
begins to make its closest approach to east central Florida, it is
expected to turn north-northwest and parallel the coast from Tuesday
into Wednesday.

Although it remains uncertain just how close the eye of Dorian will
get to the Florida east coast, the threat of damaging winds and life-
threatening storm surge remains high. There will be considerable
impacts and damage to coastal areas, with at least some effects felt
inland, as well.

Strong tropical storm force winds between 40 and 55 mph, with gusts to
hurricane force, will spread north into Martin and Saint Lucie
Counties starting this evening, then spread farther north into Indian
River County after midnight, and then across Brevard and coastal
Volusia Counties Tuesday through Tuesday night. The threat for
damaging winds is high for the coastal counties. Preparations for
Dorian should be completed by sunset before strong winds move into the
area.

Inland communities will also have an increased threat for tropical
storm force winds, especially in eastern Okeechobee, Osceola, Orange
and Seminole Counties, as well as inland Volusia County. These strong
winds will reach Okeechobee and Osceola Counties beginning early
Tuesday morning, and farther north winds to near tropical storm force
will begin Tuesday afternoon. This will be a long duration event, with
the worst conditions lasting 18 to 24 hours!

The threat for life-threatening storm surge also remains high, and
severe erosion of the beaches and dune lines is a near certainty! The
combination of surge and high astronomical tides will cause severe
runup of waves and water, resulting in inundation of many coastal
locations. Surge may reach 4 to 7 feet above ground near the coast.
The surge of north winds as the hurricane moves parallel to the coast
will cause water to pile up on the Intracoastal Waterway with coastal
flooding possible in low lying areas along the river.

Large battering waves and higher than normal tides on top of the surge
will add to the destructive force of the water during several high
tide cycles. Entering the water can be deadly as there will be very
large breaking waves building in excess of 10 feet, in addition to
numerous strong rip currents.

Heavy rainfall is forecast over east central Florida from Dorian, with
total amounts of 4 to 8 inches over the coastal counties and 3 to
6 inches inland, with maximum isolated rainfall amounts up to
10 inches along the coast. While isolated flash flooding will be
possible inland, it will be even more likely near the coast in urban
and poorly drained, low lying areas. Flooding and high water levels on
area rivers such as the Saint Johns River will be aggravated.

While threat remains low, isolated tornadoes will be possible in
squalls as they move onshore along the coast this evening through
Tuesday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across the coastal counties of Volusia, Brevard, Indian River,
Saint Lucie and Martin. Potential impacts in this area include:

    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across the interior counties of Okeechobee,
Osceola, Orange, Seminole and inland Volusia.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive
impacts from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet. Potential impacts in
this area include:

    - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
      accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
      with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
      debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
      washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
      barriers may become stressed.
    - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
    - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
      small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible
significant impacts across across all of east central Florida, with
the threat remaining highest the Volusia and Northern Brevard County
coast. Potential impacts include:

    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals,
      arroyos, and ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. Potential impacts include:

    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra time
to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your vehicle
ahead of time. Follow designated evacuation routes. Seek traffic
information on roadway signs, the radio, and from official sources.

Let others know where you are going prior to departure. Secure loose
items and pets in the car, and avoid distracted driving.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge zone.
Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find yourself
cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed evacuation
orders issued by the local authorities.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.


NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 12 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Rodriguez
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net