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BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...EYE OF DORIAN MOVING LITTLE WHILE THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO
POUND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 78.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward to Altamaha
Sound Georgia.

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward to Ponte Vedra
Beach Florida.

The Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch have been extended
northward to South Santee River South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana to Altamaha Sound

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana
* Altamaha Sound to South Santee River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach to South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of the Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic coast of the United States should continue to monitor
the progress of Dorian, as additional watches may be required
tonight and Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 78.4 West. Dorian has become
nearly stationary this afternoon.  A slow westward to west-
northwestward motion is expected to resume overnight and continue
into early Tuesday.  A turn toward the northwest is forecast by late
Tuesday, with a northeastward motion forecast to begin by Wednesday
night.  On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane
Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island into Tuesday
morning.  The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the
Florida east coast late Tuesday through Wednesday evening and then
move dangerously close to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on
Wednesday night and Thursday.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found that
maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Although gradual weakening is forecast,
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).  Sustained winds of 55 mph (89 km/h) with a gust to 69 mph
(111 km/h) was recently reported at a NOAA Coastal Marine observing
site at Settlement Point on the west end of Grand Bahama Island.  A
wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h) was reported at Opa Locka Airport
near Miami earlier this afternoon.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Devastating hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama
Island.  Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly
increase after the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida by Tuesday.  Hurricane conditions are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area beginning Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm
warning area through Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical
Storm watch area by tonight.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island.  Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.  Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands during the day.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana to South Santee River...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds.  The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 6 to 12 inches, isolated storm
totals of 30 inches.
Central Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...4 to 8
inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas
and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible through Tuesday along
the eastern coast of Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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