[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 35
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL052019
1209 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2019

This product covers EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

**Category 5 Hurricane Dorian Moving Slowly West Across the
Northwestern Bahamas**


NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Storm Surge Watch and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Coastal Volusia
    - A Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect for
      Indian River, Martin, Northern Brevard, Southern Brevard, and
      St. Lucie
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Inland Volusia,
      Northern Lake, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and
      Southern Lake

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 210 miles southeast of Cape Canaveral FL or about 150
      miles east-southeast of Stuart FL
    - 26.6N 77.9W
    - Storm Intensity 180 mph
    - Movement West or 275 degrees at 6 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

The situation remains very serious, especially for the coastal counties
of east central Florida. Dorian is a powerful and extremely dangerous
Category 5 hurricane with winds near 180 mph. As Dorian continues to
move west over the northwestern Bahamas overnight, it will slow its
forward speed. By tomorrow, powerful Dorian is forecast to turn
northwest and move toward the central Florida Atlantic waters. As
Dorian slowly begins to make its closest approach to east central
Florida, it is expected to turn north-northwest and parallel the coast
from Tuesday into Wednesday.

Although it remains uncertain just how close the eye of Dorian
eventually gets to the Florida east coast, the threat of damaging
winds and life-threatening storm surge has increased further with the
latest forecast. There WILL be considerable impacts to coastal areas,
with at least some impacts inland as well!

As the eye of Dorian moves north-northwest over the adjacent Atlantic
near. Strong sustained tropical storm force winds with frequent
hurricane force gusts will occur over the coastal counties of Martin
and Saint Lucie initially beginning late this afternoon, then spread
northward from Indian River County tonight, and then Brevard and
coastal Volusia Counties Tuesday through Tuesday night.

The threat for damaging winds is high for all of the coastal counties
and all preparations should be rushed to completion tomorrow morning,
before the onset of tropical storm force winds. Inland areas will
have an increased potential for strong tropical storm force winds,
especially in eastern Okeechobee, Osceola, Orange and Seminole
Counties, as well as inland Volusia County. These strong winds will
reach Okeechobee and Osceola Counties beginning tonight and early
Tuesday morning, and farther north over the interior beginning Tuesday
afternoon.

The threat for storm surge remains high. The combination of dangerous
storm surge and high astronomical tides will cause inundation of many
coastal locations. Life-threatening surge waters may reach 4 to 7
feet above ground near the coast. Large battering waves and higher than
normal tides on top of the surge will add to the destructive force of
the water. Severe erosion of the beaches and dune lines is a near
certainty! Listen to local officials and evacuate if ordered to do so!


Heavy rainfall is forecast over east central Florida with total amounts
of 4 to 6 inches over the coastal counties and 2 to 5 inches inland,
with maximum isolated rainfall amounts, reaching as high as 10 inches
along the coast. Flash flooding is possible inland, but even more
likely in urban and poorly drained, low lying areas near the coast.
Ongoing flooding and high water levels on local rivers such as the
Saint Johns River will be aggravated.

Also, while threat remains low, isolated tornadoes will be possible in
squalls as they move onshore along the coast.


POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
over the coastal counties of Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, Saint
Lucie and Martin. Potential impacts in these area include:

    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.


* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive
impacts from Flagler Beach to Jupiter Inlet. Potential impacts in this
area include:

    - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
      accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings,
      with several washing away. Damage compounded by floating
      debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads
      washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems and
      barriers may become stressed.
    - Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
    - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
      small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and stranded.


* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
impacts across all of east central Florida, with the threat highest
along coastal areas.

Potential impacts include:
    - Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
      rescues.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
      currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
      in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals,
      arroyos, and ditches overflow.
    - Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
      Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
      inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
      storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
      become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across the Orange, Seminole, Osceola, Okeechobee,
Inland Volusia, and Lake Counties.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts over
the coastal counties of Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, Saint Lucie
and Martin. Potential impacts include:

    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:

    - Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
      including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
      immediately.

- For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
      falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
      relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help
      keep roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

    - If evacuating, leave with a destination in mind and allow extra
      time to get there. Take your emergency supplies kit. Gas up your
      vehicle ahead of time. Let others know where you are going prior
      to departure. Secure loose items and pets in the car, and avoid
      distracted driving.



* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

    - Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
      property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
      safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

    - If you are relocating to safe shelter, leave as early as possible.
      Allow extra time to reach your destination. Many roads and bridges
      will be closed once strong winds arrive. Check the latest weather
      forecast before departing and drive with caution.

     - If heading to a community shelter, become familiar with the shelter
       rules before arrival, especially if you have special needs or have
       pets. Take essential items with you from your Emergency Supplies Kit.

     - Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
       for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
       to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
       warnings.


NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 6 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Cristaldi
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