[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Advisory Number 34
National Weather Service Miami FL  AL052019
521 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

This product covers South Florida

**Powerful Hurricane Dorian Moving Across the Northern Bahamas**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - The Storm Surge Watch has been upgraded to a Storm Surge
      Warning for Coastal Palm Beach

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coastal Broward,
      Glades, Inland Palm Beach, and Metro Broward
    - A Storm Surge Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane
      Watch are in effect for Coastal Palm Beach
    - A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
      Metro Palm Beach

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 170 miles east of West Palm Beach FL
    - 26.6N 77.3W
    - Storm Intensity 185 mph
    - Movement West or 270 degrees at 5 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Dorian is a powerful and dangerous Category 5 major
hurricane moving over the northern Bahamas this afternoon, before
moving closer to the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday
night. Although the latest forecast keeps the center of Dorian
offshore of the Southeast Florida coast, periods of tropical storm
force winds are expected over parts of coastal and metro Palm Beach
County from early Monday morning into early Wednesday morning. There
is also a reasonable risk of hurricane force winds in Palm Beach
County sometime between Monday night through Tuesday evening, with the
highest chances in the eastern portions of Palm Beach County. A
reasonable risk of tropical storm force winds also continues over
other portions of South Florida Monday through late Tuesday night,
with higher chances over Broward County as well as inland portions of
Palm Beach County and Glades County. Over the remainder of South
Florida, occasional tropical storm force wind gusts are possible
Monday and Tuesday.

The threat of life-threatening storm surge exists along the Palm Beach
County coast Monday through the middle of the week, where a storm
surge of 3 to 5 feet above ground level is expected somewhere within
surge prone spots north of Lake Worth. South of Lake Worth to Boca
Raton, a storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above ground level is possible.
These surge values are based on either the storm tracking a little
closer to the coast, or due to wave action. Coastal sections of
Broward County could also experience storm surge of 1 to 2 foot above
ground level Monday through the middle of the week.

Due to Dorian's close proximity to the Florida east coast, small
shifts in the track of the hurricane would bring substantial changes
in expected impacts. Residents and visitors in South Florida should
continue to monitor the progress of Hurricane Dorian. Preparations
should continue in the watch and warning areas, and please follow the
advice of local officials, including any evacuation orders.

Regardless of the eventual track of Dorian, major marine and beach
impacts are expected along the entire Southeast Florida coast. A
prolonged period of strong winds over the Atlantic coastal waters will
cause very hazardous seas, rough surf, and beach erosion through the
middle of the week. Coastal flooding is also possible in vulnerable
locations as far south as the Miami-Dade County coast each day through
the middle of the week, particularly during the times of high tide.
There is also an elevated threat of tornadic activity, particularly
along the eastern half of southern Florida continuing into Monday
afternoon.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across portions of metro and coastal Palm Beach County.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
      window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
      damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
      Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
      uninhabitable for weeks.
    - Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
      roadway signs blown over.
    - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
      access routes impassable.
    - Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible significant
impacts over areas from Lake Okeechobee into Broward County and
possible limited impacts across the remainder of South Florida.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible significant
impacts across coastal Palm Beach County, with the greatest risk from
Lake Worth northward. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Areas of inundation with storm surge flooding accentuated by
      waves. Damage to several buildings, mainly near the coast.
    - Sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary roads become
      weakened or washed out, especially in usually vulnerable low
      spots.
    - Major beach erosion with heavy surf breaching dunes. Strong and
      numerous rip currents.
    - Moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
      Several small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
      unprotected anchorages.

Also, protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited
impacts across other portions of South Florida's Atlantic coast.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across South Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Ditches and canals may quickly rise with swift currents.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
South Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, mobile
      homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and
      branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving
      vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.

For those not under evacuation orders, assess the risk from wind,
falling trees, and flooding at your location. If you decide to move,
relocate to a safer location nearby. If you do not relocate, help keep
roadways open for those under evacuation orders.

If evacuating, follow designated evacuation routes. Seek traffic
information on roadway signs, the radio, and from official sources.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.

It is important to remain calm, informed, and focused during an
emergency. Be patient and helpful with those you encounter.

Storm surge is the leading killer associated with tropical storms and
hurricanes! Make sure you are in a safe area away from the surge
zone. Even if you are not in a surge-prone area, you could find
yourself cutoff by flood waters during and after the storm. Heed
evacuation orders issued by the local authorities.

If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter
options.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Miami FL around 11 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions warrant.

$$

RAG/Santos/Molleda
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