[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011816
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
216 PM EDT Sun Sep 1 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 01/1500 UTC, is near 26.5N
76.8W. This position is about 20 nm to the east-northeast of
Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas, and about 205 nm to the east
of West Palm Beach in Florida. Dorian is moving W, 6 knots. The
maximum sustained wind speeds are 156 knots with gusts to 174
knots. Dorian is a Category 5 hurricane. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 913 mb. Numerous strong convection are within
50 to 90 nm of the center in the N semicircle, and within 60 to 90
nm of the center in the S semicircle. Scattered showers and
tstorms are noted elsewhere from 24N-28N between 71W-74W. The
public advisories for Dorian are available via the WMO header
WTNT35 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. The Forecast and
advisories for Dorian are available via the WMO header WTNT25
KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. The URL for more
information is www.hurricanes.gov.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is moving through the Cabo Verde
Islands, along 24W with a 1010 mb low pressure near 14N24W. This
system has become better organized since yesterday. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development during the
next several days. A tropical depression is likely to form by the
middle of the week while the system moves generally northwestward
across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Heavy rainfall is
possible over portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands during
the next couple of days, and interests on those islands should
monitor the progress of this system. This area of low pressure has
a 50 percent chance of development in the next 48 hours, and 70
percent in the next 5 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is moving through the Cabo Verde
Islands, along 25W, from 20N southward, moving W 15 to 20 knots.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 13N-16N between
22W-26W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W, from 15N southward,
moving W 20 knots. Scattered showers and tstorms are from 11N-13N
between 40W-43W.

A tropical wave is from 23N60W to 08N62W from the southwest
Atlantic south along the Leeward Islands. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 20N-27N between 56W- 60W.
Scattered showers are noted south of 21N61W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to a low pressure near 14N24W, to 11N42W, to 10N48W. The
ITCZ is along 10N48W to 09N59W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 08N-15N between 26W-51W along the
monsoon trough and the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 27N93W, to a 1010 mb low pressure
center that is just to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula near
21N88W, southeastward into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea,
near 18N87W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted north of 23N90W to the coast of Louisiana and Mississippi.
Additional convection is noted on southeast Gulf from 21N-24N
between 84W-88W. Low pressure just N of the Yucatan Peninsula
will move slowly W across the western Gulf through mid week.
Dorian will move through the northern Bahamas through early Mon
before turning NW then NNW to parallel the east coasts of FL and
Georgia through mid week. With this forecast track, the tropical
storm force winds will remain in the east coast of Florida.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from 27N93W, to a 1010 mb low pressure
center that is just to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula near
21N88W, southeastward into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea,
near 18N87W. Scattered showers and tstorms are near 18N-21N
between 78W-87W. Activity in the southwest Caribbean Sea is
associated to the proximity of the monsoon trough to the south.
Scattered to moderate convection is noted from 08N-18N between
76W-83W. ASCAT data indicates moderate to fresh easterly trades
prevail across the central Caribbean and lighter winds in the NW
Caribbean Sea.

Hurricane Dorian is moving slowly W nearing the northern Bahamas.
A tropical wave in the far eastern Caribbean will reach the
central Caribbean Mon night and western Caribbean by Wed. Moderate
to fresh winds are expected across the eastern and central
Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing over the NW
Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a low pressure to the north and enters
the forecast area near 31N42W to 31N53W. Moderate showers and
tstorms are seen 80 nm southeast of the boundary.

Dorian will move to 26.6N 77.7W this evening, 26.8N 78.5W Mon
morning, 27.0N 79.0W Mon evening as it moves northwest of Grand
Bahama Island. Dorian will continue to the northwest, paralleling
the east coast of Florida reaching 27.4N 79.4W Tue morning, and
29.7N 80.2W Wed morning. Dorian will weaken slightly in intensity
as it moves to off the South Carolina coast early Thu, and off
North Carolina Fri.

$$
MMTorres
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