[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Subtropical Storm Rebekah is centered near 41.1N 33.5W at
31/2100 UTC or 350 nm NW of the Azores moving E at 17 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Scattered showers are
seen within 90 nm of the NE quadrant. The storm should weaken and
become a post-tropical cyclone by this evening or early tomorrow.
Rebekah is forecast to be a post-tropical cyclone when it moves
near the Azores overnight. Please see products issued by the
Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for hazard
information in the Azores related to Rebekah, which can found at
https://www.ipma.pt/pt/index.html. See the latest NHC forecast/
advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC or
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...Western Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning...

A cold front stretches across the western Gulf of Mexico from
30N86W to 22N93W to 18.5N94W. Storm force NW to N winds are S of
23N and W OF 95W. Seas are 14 to 22 ft. Gale force NW to N winds
are elsewhere S of 26N and W OF 94W. Seas are 10 to 15 ft. Gale
force wind are forecast to persist for 24 hours. See the latest
High Seas Forecast product, listed under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W/47W S of 18N,
moving W at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm
of the wave axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W S of 16N, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 12N-15N
between 59W-65W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W S of 18N, moving W
at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the
wave axis inland over Venezuela.

A Central American tropical wave is along 88W S of 22N, moving W
at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the
wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 09N13W to
07N20W to 05N34W. The ITCZ continues from 05N34W to French Guiana
near 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 00N-09N between 23W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is pushing across the NW Gulf of Mexico. See the
special features section for more details. Scattered moderate
convection is mostly in the Bay of Campeche from 18N-23N between
91W-96W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 90 nm of the
front.

The strong cold front will push SE and extend from near Tampa Bay
to the eastern Bay of Campeche tonight, then from SW Florida to
the NW Yucatan Peninsula Fri. Strong gale to minimal storm force
winds follow the front, with the strongest winds near Veracruz.
Seas will peak near 22 ft near Veracruz this evening. Winds W of
the front will diminish to below gale force by late Fri morning.
Strong high pressure behind the front will support fresh to strong
N to NE winds across the basin this weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Three tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the
coast of Nicaragua from 11N-16N between 80W-85W. Of note in the
upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the W tip of
Cuba near 22N84W enhancing convection over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Moderate trade winds will prevail across most of the Caribbean
through Sun. Large long period NE swell will continue propagating
through the tropical north Atlantic waters and the Caribbean
passages through Fri. Seas will gradually subside Fri night
through Sat night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across the eastern and central
Atlantic, entering the waters near 31N34W to 21N50W to 20N63W to
26N72W. A surface trough is seen in the Bahamas from 21N71W to
26N75W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 30 nm of the
front. A surface trough is seen ahead of the front from 26N37W to
20N43W. Scattered showers and within 90 nm of the trough axis. A
1029 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 35N16W.

High pressure N of the region will shift eastward through Fri
ahead of a cold front moving into the far NW waters tonight. The
front will reach from 31N76W to south Florida on Fri, then stall.
Strong high pressure will push the front again by Sat night,
reaching from 31N72W to south Florida on Sun. Large long period NE
swell affecting the forecast area with seas in the 8 to 11 ft
range will gradually subside from W to E late Sat into Sun.

$$
Formosa
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