[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT44 KNHC 310238
TCDAT4

Subtropical Storm Rebekah Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192019
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 30 2019

The cloud pattern has not changed very much during the past few
hours and still consists primarily of a convective band that wraps
around the center of circulation of the cyclone. Recent ASCAT data
reveal that the cyclone has a well-defined circulation with 40-kt
winds, but these strong winds are confined to the southern
semicircle.

Most of the guidance indicates that Rebekah will change very little
in intensity during the next 24 hours, and after that time, the
combination of cold waters and strong upper-level winds should
result in the cyclone becoming extratropical while weakening. Most
of the global models dissipate the cyclone in 48 hours or sooner,
and so does the NHC forecast.

As indicated in the previous advisory, Rebekah is rotating around a
larger non-tropical low pressure system, and the best estimate of
the initial motion is toward the east or 080 degrees at 15 kt.
However, a turn to the east-northeast is possible tonight and early
Thursday, before Rebekah becomes even more embedded within the
flow behind a mid-level trough. The cyclone should then turn toward
the east-southeast until it dissipates later this week. Since the
track guidance is better agreement tonight, the confidence in the
track prediction is a little higher. The NHC forecast is in the
middle of the guidance envelope and is not very different from the
previous one.

Since Rebekah is not currently forecast to be a tropical or
subtropical cyclone when it nears the Azores, hazard information
can be found in regular products issued by the Portuguese Institute
for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for those islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  31/0300Z 38.5N  38.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  31/1200Z 39.5N  36.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 40.0N  32.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 39.5N  28.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  02/0000Z 38.0N  22.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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