[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
759 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...Central Atlantic Gale Warning...

A 1000 mb surface low is expected to move to near 31N50W by early
Tuesday, with associated cold front extending from the low to
29N57W to beyond 31N70W. Gale force winds are expected north of
29N between 50W-53W, with seas ranging between 13-16 ft. These
conditions will continue through early Wednesday. See the latest
High Seas Forecast product, under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 36W from
00N-16N, moving west at 10-15 kt.Tis wave is in the leading edge
of a dry/dusty Saharan airmass. The wave axis is well depicted in
satellite imagery. Scattered showers prevail along the wave's
axis from 04N-10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 59W from 05N-
18N, moving west at 10 kt. This wave is also depicted in satellite
imagery. Scattered showers are noted along the northern portion of
the wave mainly north of 10N.

A central Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 74W is moving
west at 10-15 kt. A well defined upper level low centered over
Hispaniola is enhancing the area surrounding this wave. At this
time, scattered showers are noted along the northern portion of
the wave north of 18N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 13N16W
to 06N25W. The ITCZ extends from 06N25W to 08N35W, then continues
west of a tropical wave from 09N39W to 10N57W. Aside from the
convection related to the tropical waves described above,
scattered showers are noted within 45 nm on either side of the
ITCZ between 07N-10N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening frontal boundary extends across the basin. A warm
front is analyzed from 28N82W to 25N95W, then becomes weak through
19N94W. South of this feature, a surface trough extends from
24N89W to 20N90W. An upper level low centered over the Yucatan
Peninsula is enhancing convection across the eastern half of the
basin. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle variable winds
across the western Gulf, while moderate easterly winds prevail
over the eastern Gulf waters.

The upper-level low will weaken as it moves to near the northwest
section of the Yucatan Peninsula Wed, with the associated shower
and thunderstorm activity shifting to mainly over the central
Gulf. A strong cold front is expected to move into the northwest
Gulf early Thu, then quickly push southeastward reaching from near
Tampa, Florida to near 24N89W and to the eastern Bay of Campeche
early Fri. It will weaken as it reaches from near Fort Myers,
Florida to near 23N89W to the eastern Bay of Campeche Fri night.
Near gale to gale force northerly winds will follow the front
across much of the west-central waters and along and offshore the
coast of Veracruz. The front will then become stationary and
continue to weaken through Sat night. Winds and seas will subside
behind the front Fri through Sat night, except in the Bay of
Campeche where strong northerly winds will remain.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the basin. Refer to the section
above for details.

An upper level low is centered over Hispaniola enhancing
convection across the island and adjacent waters. Another upper
level low is centered over the Yucatan Peninsula, enhancing
convection across central America. Aside from this convection,
a relatively dry air is noted across the remainder of the basin.
The latest ASCAT pass shows depicts fresh trades over the south-central
Caribbean, while moderate trades prevail elsewhere.

The gradient associated with high pressure centered over the
western Atlantic will allow for fresh to locally strong trades to
pulse near the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela through the night
hours, before diminishing to fresh speeds in the afternoon.
Moderate trades will remain across the central and eastern
Caribbean through weekend, while gentle trades remain over the
northwestern Caribbean. Large long-period northeast swell
propagating through the central Atlantic and into the Caribbean
Passages will slowly subside through early Tue evening. A large
set of large north-northeast swell will propagate through the
tropical north Atlantic waters and northeast Caribbean passages
Wed through Fri and begin to slowly subside Fri night through Sat
night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details about the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A stationary front extends across the west Atlantic from 32N76W
to 29N81W. To the east, a 1019 mb surface high is near 28N67W. A
cold front enters the area near 32N30W to 27N38W to 26N59W.
Scattered are noted along the front.

High pressure over the Atlantic SW of Bermuda will maintain
moderate east to southeast winds across the region through Tue
before reinforcing high pressure builds in from the N to freshen
the wind flow area wide. Large long period NE swell is peaking at
8-10 feet across the waters S of 25N and E of 72W today, and will
slowly subside through late Tue. Reinforcing long period N-NE
swell will begin to move into the NE waters Wed and reach the SE
waters and NE Caribbean Thu, with seas expected to peak at 10 to
11 ft Fri night through Sat morning.

$$

ERA
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