[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 280238
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182019
1100 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019

Shortly after the release of the previous advisory, deep convection
associated with Pablo finally began to decrease in both coverage and
organization.  Convection has become confined to the southern
portion of the circulation and the eye is no longer apparent in
conventional satellite imagery, although a low-level eye feature was
still noted in a recent GMI microwave overpass.  The initial
intensity has been reduced to 60 kt, which is a blend of the latest
Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB.

Pablo is approaching a frontal boundary that lies just to the north
of the cyclone, and is also moving over SSTs of around 17C. This
should cause the deep convection to continue to wane overnight, and
Pablo is expected to become extratropical when it merges with the
aforementioned front on Tuesday.  The global models indicate that
the post-tropical cyclone will be absorbed by a much larger
extratropical low to its west by Tuesday morning.

Recent microwave and satellite fixes show that Pablo's forward speed
has begun to slow as expected, and its initial motion is now north
or 360/12 kt.  The dynamical models indicate that Pablo will
continue to decelerate overnight as it moves generally northward.  A
slow northward motion should then continue on Monday as Pablo merges
with the frontal zone and becomes post-tropical.

The 12- and 24-h forecast wind radii were adjusted outward to
account for the area of gale-force winds north of the frontal
boundary that Pablo is expected to merge with late Monday or early
Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 46.0N  17.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 47.0N  17.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  29/0000Z 48.2N  17.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

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