[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 262031
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182019
500 PM AST Sat Oct 26 2019

Pablo has become a little better organized during the past several
hours, with a small eye becoming somewhat better defined.  However,
the various satellite intensity estimates have remained near 45 kt.
Based on the increased organization since the the 40-45 kt winds
seen in earlier scatterometer data, the initial intensity is now
set at 50 kt.

Pablo has turned northeastward and accelerated, with the initial
motion now 055/22.  This motion should bring the small core of the
storm near or over the eastern Azores during the next several hours.
 After that, the tropical storm should turn northward and eventually
northwestward as a developing mid-latitude low to the west becomes
the dominant steering mechanism.  The guidance has shifted a bit to
the east since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is
similar to, but east of, the previous forecast.

Pablo should slow weaken as it moves into an environment of colder
sea surface temperatures and increasing shear, and a developing
frontal zone near the cyclone should lead to the system becoming
extratropical by 36 h.  The global models continue to forecast the
system to merge with the mid-latitude low to the west between
48-72 h, so the intensity forecast again shows dissipation during
that time.

Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low,
which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the
Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included
the effects of this small cyclone in their products.  Those products
already account for the strong winds and high waves expected in the
Azores.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 36.3N  25.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 39.3N  22.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 42.7N  20.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 44.9N  20.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  28/1800Z 46.3N  21.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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