[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
152 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a 1007 mb low pressure
system located over the southwest Gulf of Mexico near 23.2N 95.3W
on 25/0300 UTC continue to show signs of organization. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is from 19N-30N between 90W-97W.
Further development is anticipated, and there is a high chance
that a short-lived tropical depression will form today. The
system is forecast to merge with a cold front or become post-
tropical late today or Saturday over the central Gulf of Mexico.
Refer to the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for
more information.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will reach the
western Gulf of Mexico around sunrise this morning, and push into
the Bay of Campeche this afternoon. Gale force winds to 40 kt are
expected behind the front south of 26N and west of 94W beginning
early this morning. Gales will continue in the SW Gulf off
Veracruz through Saturday morning before winds subside later
Saturday. Seas will build to 12-16 ft over the area late today
into early Saturday. See the latest High Seas forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 20W/21W from 20N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. The wave is very well defined in
satellite imagery, total precipitable water imagery, and model
diagnostics. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 05N-15N between 19W-25W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W from 14N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 07N-12N
between 37W-43W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends from 22N50W to 14N52W to
06N52W, moving W at 5 kt. The wave is in a dry environment, and
no showers are seen.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W from 07N-21N,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is along the coast of N Colombia from 11N-14N between
71W-75W. Isolated moderate convection is elsewhere within 180 nm
of the axis. Convection is also being enhanced by large scale
upper-level cyclonic flow over the central Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W to 09N20W to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to
07N40W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 07N45W to
07N51W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves
section, isolated moderate convection is from 02N-10N between
25W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for information on the low
that is currently producing convection over the western Gulf of
Mexico. Also see the Special Features section regarding the
forecast Gale Warning over the western Gulf of Mexico behind a
cold front.

The far eastern Gulf is free of significant convection east of
83W. In the upper-levels, large scale upper-level anticyclonic
flow covers the Gulf of Mexico. Strong subsidence is over Florida
and the SE Gulf.

The western Gulf of Mexico low a high chance forming into a tropical
depression today. The low is expected to become post-tropical by
Saturday or merge with a cold front that is currently approaching
the NW Gulf of Mexico. By tonight, this front will reach from
Louisiana into the Bay of Campeche. To the west of the front,
northerly gale force winds are expected today into early Saturday
over the western Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level low is centered over the central Caribbean near
18N79W. Aside from the convection between 70W-76W mentioned in
the Tropical Waves section above, isolated moderate convection is
over the western Caribbean and Central America W of 76W. Latest
ASCAT pass shows fresh winds N of N Colombia, and moderate winds
elsewhere over the basin.

Moderate trade winds are expected across most of the Caribbean
through Mon night. A weak tropical wave over and south of Haiti
will move west into the western Caribbean by late Fri. A second
weak tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles Fri evening and
approach Puerto Rico late Sat. Winds will be enhanced near the
tropical waves as they pass across the basin during the next few
days. Large long period NE swell will reach the Leeward Islands
Sun and continue through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front over the W Atlantic extends from 31N68W to Vero
Beach Florida near 28N80W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of
the front. A strong cold front is over the central Atlantic from
31N31W to 25N40W to 24N50W to 26N55W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 240 nm S of the front E of 43W. Of note in
the upper levels, a large upper level low is over the E Atlantic
near 37N35W supporting the cold front.

The W Atlantic front will weaken and dissipate today. High
pressure north of the region will maintain moderate to fresh E to
SE winds over the forecast waters through Sun night. Large long
period NE swell will cause seas to build in SE waters E of 70W Sun
to Mon.

$$
Formosa

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