[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
631 AM EDT Thu Oct 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will reach the Texas
coast Friday morning. It is expected to bring gale force winds to
the far western Gulf of Mexico beginning Friday, south of 26N and
west of 95W. Gales will continue in the SW Gulf off Veracruz into
Saturday. Seas of 12-16 ft are expected. See the latest High Seas
forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave along the W coast of Africa has an axis along
17W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is very
well-defined in satellite imagery, total precipitable water
imagery, and model diagnostics. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is mostly south of the monsoon trough from 02N-
14N between 10W-24W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 14N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 240 nm
of the wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends from 21N49W to 13N51W to
06N51W moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm E
of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W from 06N-20N, moving W
at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 15N-20N between
63W-69W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere over
Venezuela from 05N-09N between 64W-70W.

A tropical wave extends from the SW Gulf of Mexico near 22N93W to
the East Pacific near 06N96W, moving W at 10 kt. The tropical
wave shows up well in model diagnostics. The northern portion of
the tropical wave in the eastern Bay of Campeche is interacting
with a warm front to produce scattered moderate to strong
convection from 18N-24N between 91W-96W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 07N20W to 05N35W. The ITCZ extends from
05N35W to 05N39W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 06N42W
to the coast of French Guyana near 05N52W. Aside from the
convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered
moderate convection is from 03N-09N between 24W-34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 24/0900 UTC, a stationary front extends from near Stuart
Florida to near Fort Myers Florida to the SE Gulf of Mexico near
24N86W. A warm front continues from 24N86W to the SW Gulf near
25N96W. Isolated moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front
W of 87W. The Bay of Campeche has scattered moderate to strong
convection from 18N-24N between 91W-95W, due to the tropical
wave.

The front is forecast to weaken as it lifts north and dissipates
by tonight. The northern portion of a tropical wave moving
through the Bay of Campeche is producing convection over the SW
Gulf. A strong cold front will reach the NW Gulf Fri morning, and
push into the Bay of Campeche on Fri night, with gale force winds
expected W of the front near the coast of Mexico Fri into early
Sat. An area of low pressure will drift N along the frontal
boundary Sat and Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

For information regarding the tropical wave in the eastern
Caribbean, please see the section above.

Large scale upper-level cyclonic flow covers the central and
eastern Caribbean Sea north of 10N between 64W-84W. Isolated
moderate convection covers this area to include Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Jamaica. In the far
western Caribbean and Central America scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are mostly due to the tropical wave along
93W.

Moderate trade winds are expected across most of the Caribbean
through Sun night. A weak tropical wave will move west of Puerto
Rico into the central Caribbean today. A second tropical wave will
reach the Lesser Antilles Fri night. Winds will be enhanced near
the tropical waves as they pass across the basin during the next
few days. Large long period NE swell will reach the Leeward
Islands on Sun.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N69W to Stuart
Florida at 27N80W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
front. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N38W to
29N45W to beyond 31N52W. A prefrontal trough extends from 30N37W
to 24N51W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm S of the
trough. A 1021 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 37N10W.

The front in the W Atlantic will weaken and dissipate through Fri.
High pressure north of the region will maintain moderate to fresh
E to SE winds over the forecast waters through Sun night. Large
long period NE swell will cause seas to build in SE waters E of
70W beginning on Sun. The cold front over the central Atlantic
will move SE today and proceed to the eastern Atlantic through
Sat.

$$
Formosa

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