[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
153 AM EDT Thu Oct 24 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will reach the Texas
coast Friday morning. It is expected to bring gale force winds to
the far western Gulf of Mexico beginning Friday evening, south of
26N and west of 95W. Gales will continue in the SW Gulf off
Veracruz into Saturday. Seas of 12-14 ft are expected. See the
latest High Seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for further details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave along the W coast of Africa has an axis along
16W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave is very
well-defined in satellite imagery, total precipitable water
imagery, and model diagnostics. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is mostly south of the monsoon trough from 02N-
13N between 06W-22W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W from 14N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 240 nm
of the wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends from 21N48W to 13N50W to
06N50W moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm E of
the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W from 06N-20N, moving W
at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 15N-20N between
63W-69W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere over Venezuela
from 05N-09N between 65W-69W.

A tropical wave extends from the SW Gulf of Mexico near 23N92W to
the East Pacific near 06N95W, moving W at 10 kt. The tropical
wave shows up well in model diagnostics. The northern portion of
the tropical wave in the eastern Bay of Campeche is interacting
with a stationary front to produce scattered moderate to strong
convection from 18N-23N between 90W-94W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W to 07N21W to 07N32W. The ITCZ extends from
07N32W to 05N37W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 05N40W
to the coast of French Guyana near 04N52W. Aside from the
convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section, scattered
moderate convection is from 03N-09N between 23W-34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from near Stuart Florida to near
Fort Myers Florida to the SE Gulf of Mexico near 24N88W to the SW
Gulf near 24N93W to 23N96W. Isolated moderate convection is within
90 nm of the front W of 85W to include the Yucatan Channel. The
eastern Bay of Campeche has scattered moderate to strong
convection from 18N-23N between 90W-94W, due to the tropical
wave.

The front is forecast to weaken as it lifts north and dissipates
by Thu night. Weak low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing numerous showers and thunderstorms over southern Mexico
and the SW Gulf. There is a low chance of tropical formation over
the next few days with this low as it moves northwest then north
over the western Gulf of Mexico. By Fri morning, a strong cold
front will enter the northwest Gulf, and merge with the low as the
front moves east through the western Gulf this weekend. Behind
the front, gale force NW to N winds are expected over the western
Gulf Fri and Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

For information regarding the tropical wave in the eastern
Caribbean, please see the section above.

Large scale upper-level cyclonic flow covers the central and
eastern Caribbean Sea north of 10N between 64W-84W. Isolated
moderate convection covers this area to include Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Jamaica. In the far
western Caribbean and Central America scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are mostly due to the tropical wave along
92W.

Moderate trade winds are expected across most of the Caribbean
through Sun night. A weak tropical wave will move westward to the
south of Puerto Rico tonight and into the central Caribbean Thu.
Another weak tropical wave will reach the Tropical Atlantic near
55W Thu and approach the Lesser Antilles Fri. Winds will be
enhanced over the Caribbean near the tropical waves as they pass
across the basin through the end of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N70W to 28N77W, then
continues as a stationary front to near Stuart Florida at 27N80W.
Scattered showers within 60 nm of the front. A surface trough is
over the central Atlantic from 30N40W to 23N54W. Isolated moderate
convection is within 120 nm S of the trough. A 1022 mb high is
over the E Atlantic near 35N16W.

The front in the W Atlantic will weaken and dissipate by Friday.
High pressure centered north of the region will maintain moderate
to fresh E to SE winds over the forecast waters through Sun night.
Long period NE swell will cause seas to build E of 70W beginning
on Sun.

A cold front over the central Atlantic has reached 33N40W. This
front will dip south today and move over the central and eastern
Atlantic through Sat.

$$
Formosa

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