[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
631 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W from 02N-14N, moving
W at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong A weak Bermuda high will promote moderate to fresh
tradewinds across most of the basin through Fri night. An active
tropical wave along 85W will move westward and exit the region by
mid-week. Atlantic high pressure will strengthen across the basin
behind a tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean Sat,
and freshen tradewinds across central portions. No tropical
cyclone activity is expected over the region for at least the next
several days.convection is from 07N-11N between 23W-30W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W from 02N-15N, moving
W at 10-15 knots. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
05N-17N between 38W-47W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W from 04N-20N, moving W
at 10-15 knots. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 09N-
20N between 75W-90W.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea near 11N15W to 05N21W. The
ITCZ extends from 05N21W to 05N29W. The ITCZ continues W of a
tropical wave near 04N32W to 05N40W to 08N44W. The ITCZ resumes W
of another tropical wave near 08N47W to the coast of French Guyana
near 05N53W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical
wave section, scattered moderate convection is along the coast of
W Africa from 07N-12N between 15W-20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 22/0900 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle
near 31N87W to 27N90W to 25N96W to N of Tampico Mexico near
22N98W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 23N-27N
between 92W-97W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is over Mexico from 20N-24N between 97W-100W. 20 kt N winds are N
of the front. The remainder of the Gulf has 10-15 kt SE to S
return flow. Of note in the upper levels, a very large upper level
trough is over the central CONUS to include Texas supporting the
cold front. An upper level high is centered over the W Atlantic
near 29N77W. Strong subsidence is over S Florida and the SE Gulf.

The cold front will move southeastward and reach from near Tampa
FL to offshore of NE Mexico to the western Bay of Campeche early
Wed, where it will stall and weaken through early Thu. Strong NE
winds are building behind the front and will continue Tue through
Wed afternoon. Winds will gradually veer southeast across the
basin Thu in advance of next cold front, which is expected to
reach the Texas coast Fri morning. Gale force NW to N winds are
expected behind this front from Fri through Sat afternoon across
the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A western Caribbean tropical wave is producing a good amount of
convection W of 77W. See above.

Elsewhere, isolated moderate convection is over Hispaniola, Puerto
Rico , and the NE Caribbean from 16N-19N between 65W-74W. 10-20
kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea. Strongest winds are over
the Gulf of Honduras. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper
level low is centered over E Honduras near 15N85W enhancing
convection. Elsewhere, strong subsidence is over the Windward
Islands.

A weak Bermuda high will promote moderate to fresh tradewinds
across most of the basin through Fri night. An active tropical
wave along 85W will move westward and exit the region by mid-week.
Atlantic high pressure will strengthen across the basin behind a
tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean Sat, and freshen
tradewinds across central portions. No tropical cyclone activity
is expected over the region for at least the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 22/0900 UTC, a cold front is over the W Atlantic from
31N67W to 27N72W to 28N74W. A warm front continues from 28N74W to
beyond 31N75W. Isolated moderate convection is off the coast of
Florida from 28N-33N between 78W-80W. Scattered showers are
within 90 nm of the cold front. A stationary front is over the
central Atlantic from 31N50W to 24N54W to 22N63W. Isolated
moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front. Of note in the
upper levels, an upper level low is over the E Atlantic near
29N32W. Isolated moderate convection is from 26N-33N between 28W-
35W.

The W Atlantic front will shift slowly E through the week.
Another cold front will move off the coast of N Florida Tue
evening and become stationary over central Florida and N of the
Bahamas by Thu, gradually dissipating along 27N. High pressure
will build from the middle Atlantic coast SE into the area in the
wake of this front.

$$
Formosa
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