[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220542
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
142 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W from 02N-14N, moving
W at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 07N-11N between 23W-33W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 44W from 02N-15N, moving
W at 10-15 knots. Widely scattered moderare convection is from
07N-17N between 33W-47W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W from 04N-20N, moving W
at 10-15 knots. Widely scattered moderate convection is from
12N-21N between 78W-86W.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea near 11N15W to 05N20W. The
ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 06N27W. The ITCZ continues W of a
tropical wave near 07N30W to 08N42W. The ITCZ resumes W of another
tropical wave near 08N46W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W.
Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the
coast of W Africa from 07N-13N between 14W-18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 22/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from central Louisiana
near 30N91W to NE Mexico near 24N98W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is E of the front from 23N-29N between 91W-96W. Similar
convection is over the NE Gulf of Mexico and the Florida
Panhandle from 28N- 31N between 84W-87W. Elsewhere, scattered
moderate to strong convection is W of Tampico Mexico from 20N-24N
between 97W-101W. 20 kt N winds are N of the front. The remainder
of the Gulf has 10-15 kt SE to S return flow. Of note in the upper
levels, a very large upper level trough is over the central CONUS
to include Texas supporting the cold front. An upper level high is
centered over the W Atlantic near 29N77W. Strong subsidence is
over S Florida and the SE Gulf.

The cold front will move SE and reach from near
Mobile Alabama to near Tampico Mexico Tue morning, then from near
Cape Coral Florida to offshore of NE Mexico to the western Bay of
Campeche early Wed, where it will stall and weaken through early
Thu. Strong NE winds are expected behind the front Tue through Wed
afternoon. Winds will gradually veer SE across the basin Thu in
advance of next cold front, which is expected to reach the Texas
coast Fri morning. Gale force N winds are expected behind this
front Fri and Fri night across the western Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A western Caribbean tropical wave is producing a good amount of
convection W of 78W. See above.

Elsewhere, isolated moderate convection is over Hispaniola, Puerto
Rico , and the NE Caribbean from 16N-19N between 65W-74W. 10-20
kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea. Strongest winds are over
the Gulf of Honduras. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper
level low is centered over E Honduras near 15N85W enhancing
convection. Elsewhere, strong subsidence is over the Windward
Islands.

A weak Bermuda high will promote moderate to fresh trade winds
across most of the basin through Fri night. An active tropical
wave along 83W will move westward and exit the region by mid-
week. Atlantic high pressure will strengthen across the basin
behind a tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean Sat,
and freshen tradewinds across central portions.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 22/0300 UTC, a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N68W
to 28N71W to 28N74W. A warm front continues from 28N74W to beyond
31N79W. Isolated moderate convection is off the coast of Florida
from 29N-33N between 79W-80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm
of the cold front. A stationary front is over the central Atlantic
from 31N48W to 25N53W to 22N63W. Isolated moderate convection is
within 120 nm if the front. Of note in the upper levels, an upper
level low is over the E Atlantic near 29N32W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 26N-33N between 28W-35W.

The W Atlantic front will shift slowly E through the week.
Another cold front will move off the coast of N Florida Tue
evening and become stationary over central Florida and N of the
Bahamas by Thu, gradually dissipating along 27N. High pressure
will build from the middle Atlantic coast SE into the area in the
wake of this front.

$$
Formosa

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