[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202346
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W/29W, from 15N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: monsoon
trough and ITCZ related isolated moderate is within 300 nm to
the south of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ between 22W and 34W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W/43W, from 14N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 360 nm to the N
of the ITCZ between 33W and 41W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/76W, from 21N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow spans the Caribbean Sea and parts of Central America
between 74W and 87W. Precipitation: Numerous strong in Haiti
from 18.5N northward. Isolated to widely scattered moderate
elsewhere within 300 nm to the E of the tropical wave.

A tropical wave is moving through Guatemala, along 90W/91W, from
18N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is in Guatemala.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W, curving to 10N19W,
06N22W, and 06N27W. The ITCZ is along 06N29W, 07N35W, 05N43W,
04N45W and 04N50W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within
300 nm to the south of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ between
22W and 34W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 360 nm to the N of the ITCZ between 33W and 41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Satellite imagery, and GFS model data from 700 mb to 250 mb,
show that broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the
Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front passes through 32N78W, in the Atlantic Ocean,
across central Florida near 28N81W, into the Gulf of Mexico to
24N87W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from
26N southward from 88W eastward.

Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong along the coast of
Mexico, from 23N to 25N, just to the south of the border with
Texas. This precipitation also is upstream from the periphery of
T.D. Priscilla, that is inland in SW Mexico.

Weak high pressure has moved into the far NE coastal waters and
will slide NE through Monday night. A cold front will reach the
NW Gulf of Mexico on Monday night. The front will extend across
the basin from central Florida to NE Mexico by Wednesday
morning. Strong NE winds are expected behind the front on
Tuesday and Tuesday night. The front is forecast to weaken and
dissipate by Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is about 180 nm to
the east of Nicaragua, along 13N/14N. Upper level cyclonic wind
flow covers the Caribbean Sea, between 74W and 87W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong has been moving from east
to west, across Nicaragua, during the last few hours.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, between northern sections
of Colombia and western and NW Costa Rica. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong in NW Panama and in NW Costa Rica.
Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere in the coastal
waters of Colombia from 10N southward from 78W eastward, and
elsewhere in Panama and Costa Rica.

A weak Bermuda high pressure center will promote moderate to
fresh trade winds across most of the basin through Thursday
night, except for fresh SE winds pulsing to strong in the Gulf
of Honduras tonight and on Monday night. An active 74W/76W
tropical wave will move westward and reach the western Caribbean
Sea by Tuesday. No tropical cyclones are expected in the
Caribbean Sea during the next several days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic Ocean cold front curves from 32N48W, to
28N50W, and to 25N58W. A shear line continues from 25N58W to
26N70W. Precipitation: isolated moderate within 200 nm to the E
and SE of the cold front. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere
from 20N northward between 50W and 70W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N35W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 18N to
33N between 25W and 44W. One surface trough is along 33N30W to
31N33W, to 23N34W. A second surface trough is along 42W/43W from
20N to 27N. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
moderate and isolated strong is from 24N northward between 31W
and 37W.

A dissipating cold front passes through 30N10W to 26N19W to
28N27W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 24N
northward from 30W eastward.

The remnants of Nestor currently are approaching the middle
Atlantic coast. The remnants will generate fresh S to SW winds
in the NW waters this evening, and then diminish late tonight.
Weak high pressure will prevail elsewhere in the area on Monday
and Tuesday. A cold front will move off the coast of N Florida
on Tuesday evening. The cold front will become stationary in
central Florida and north of the Bahamas by Thursday. No new
tropical cyclones are expected in the forecast waters during the
next several days.

$$
mt
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