[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
151 AM EDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Post-tropical cyclone Nestor remains inland near 32N83.5W. Latest
scatterometer data depicts gale-force winds in the vicinity N of
29.5N and W of 77W. These conditions are expected through 20/0600
UTC. For more information, refer to the High Seas Forecast
product, under WMO/AWIPS headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 26W from
01N-15N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are
noted within 90 nm to the east of the wave axis mainly south of
10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 15N40W to
00N41W, moving W around 10 kt. This position corresponds well
with where the models indicate the 700 mb trough axis and with
latest scatterometer data. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 05N-08N between 39W-42W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 71W
from 21N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Most recent ASCAT pass
continues to depict a surface trough with this wave. Scattered
showers are noted within 120 nm on either side of the wave axis
affecting Hispaniola.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N16W to 09N18W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N18W to 07N23W, then continues W of a tropical
wave from 08N27W to 08N38W. The ITCZ resumes once again W of
another tropical wave near 05N42W to 05N52W. Aside from the
convection related to the tropical waves described above,
scattered moderate convection is within 270 nm N of the ITCZ
between 30W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends SW across northeast Gulf from 28N83W to
26N85W. A surface trough extends from 25N84W to 22N87W with
scattered showers. A 1009 mb surface high is located near 26N92W
keeping fair weather for central and western Gulf. ASCAT imagery
show fresh to strong southerly wind ahead of the front along the
eastern Gulf. Scattered moderate convection extends from near Key
West to the Yucatan Peninsula.

Marine conditions will improve rapidly across the NE Gulf today
as what was Nestor continues moving inland off to the NE. The next
cold front will reach the NW Gulf on Mon night, then extend
across the basin from northern Florida to NE Mexico on Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

Upper-level ridging and relatively dry air cover much of the
western portion of the Caribbean. The exception is in the Yucatan
Channel, where scattered moderate convection prevail. ASCAT shows
fresh southerly winds in the Yucatan Channel, as well as in the
NW Caribbean north of 17N between 83W-87W. Moderate trades
prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean, except for locally
fresh near the tropical wave along 69W. In the SW Caribbean, the
East Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered showers over
Colombia, eastern Panama, and the Caribbean waters.

Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across
most of the the basin through mid-week, except for fresh to
strong winds across portions of the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh S to
SE winds through the Yucatan Channel will gradually diminish today.
An active tropical wave along 71W will move W and reach the
western Caribbean by Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Atlantic. See the section
above for details.

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Refer to the
section above for details.

A warm front extends from 32N79W to 29N74W. Scattered showers
prevail across the W Atlantic west of 68W. To the east, a cold
front extends from 31N52W to 26N69W, then transition to a
stationary front to 26N71W. Scattered moderate convection prevails
along the cold front mainly north of 24N. Farther east, a surface
trough is analyzed from 27N31W to 20N35W associated to an upper-level
low enhancing showers and tstorms north of 25N between 31W-38W.

The gale-force winds over the W Atlantic will diminish overnight.
Moderate N-NE swell will move through the eastern waters through
today before fading. Weak high pressure will prevail over the area
Mon and Tue. The next cold front will move off the coast of N
Florida by Tue evening.

$$

ERA
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