[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 190838
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Nestor Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Nestor is rapidly losing the few tropical characteristics that it
once had.  The cloud pattern consists of a large circulation of low
clouds with a comma-shape convective band well to the east of the
circulation.  This band is already over a large portion of the
Florida peninsula.  The center of the system or the area of minimum
pressure could be anywhere within this gyre, and the precise
location is uncertain.  Surrounding data and ASCAT measurements
suggest that the winds have decreased to 45 kt.

All indications are that no significant strengthening is anticipated
before the broad circulation moves inland later today, and guidance
suggests that Nestor will lose its tropical characteristics while
moving across the southeastern United States. The weaker
extratropical cyclone is expected to dissipate or merge with a cold
front in about 4 days or sooner.

Since the center is not well defined, the initial motion is
highly uncertain. It appears that cyclone has slowed down but it
should resume a motion toward northeast or 045 degrees at about 15
kt. Most of the track models are in good agreement that this general
motion should continue, and the broad circulation will move inland
over the Florida Panhandle later today and across portions of
Georgia and the Carolinas later tonight and Sunday.

Given the non-tropical appearance of Nestor, dangerous storm
surge and tropical-storm-force winds will occur along a large
portion of the Florida Gulf Coast well east of the track of Nestor's
center today.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of
up to 5 feet above ground level along the Florida Gulf Coast from
Indian Pass to Clearwater Beach, where a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
officials.

2. Tropical storm force winds are spreading across portions of the
Florida Gulf Coast, where tropical storm warnings are in effect.
Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, these
winds will cover a large area, especially east of the center.

3. Isolated flash flooding is possible across the southeastern
United States into Sunday morning.

4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will
be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS
offices, since the system is expected to lose its tropical
characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 29.0N  86.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 30.7N  84.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 33.5N  80.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  20/1800Z 36.0N  76.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  21/0600Z 37.0N  71.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  22/0600Z 37.5N  65.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

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