[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 190838
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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nestor Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019

...WINDS AND STORM SURGE SHOULD BE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE GULF COAST
OF FLORIDA...
...NESTOR GRADUALLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 86.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of
Okaloosa/Walton County line, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County line to Yankeetown Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the broad circulation center of Tropical
Storm Nestor was estimated near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 86.0
West. Nestor is expected to move toward the northeast near 17 mph
(28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through
today. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected to occur Sunday.
On the forecast track, Nestor will move inland over the Florida
Panhandle later this morning, and will then move across portions of
the southeastern United States later today and Sunday while it
becomes a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore
of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
No change in strength is anticipated before Nestor reaches the
coast, but is forecast to weaken after it moves inland. The cyclone
is expected to lose tropical characteristics and become
post-tropical later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft
Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach or are
already reaching the coast within the warning area, and will
continue through this afternoon.

Gale-force winds are likely to begin along portions of the Atlantic
coast of the southeastern United States later today.

RAINFALL: Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches this weekend across portions of the southeastern
United States, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through midday in northern
and central Florida Peninsula, and later today and tonight over
coastal areas of Georgia and the Carolinas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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