[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190542
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
142 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Nestor is centered near 28.5N 87.0W at 19/0300
UTC or 120 nm ESE of the mouth of The Mississippi River moving
NE at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted across
the eastern portion of the system from 24N-31W between 79W-85W.
On the forecast track, the center of Nestor will move inland over
the Florida Panhandle this morning, and will then move across
portions of the southeastern United States later today and Sunday
while it becomes a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to
move offshore of the coast of North Carolina into the western
Atlantic by late Sunday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC or the website
hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been added to this analysis, with axis
extending along 21W from 01N-13N. This wave is depicted in model
guidance. Scattered showers are noted to the east of the wave axis
from 08N-13N and east of 21W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 38W from
12N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 05N-12N between 32W and the wave axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 66W
from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is depicted
very well at the surface in scatterometer data. Scattered showers
are noted in the wave's environment between 60W-70W.

A tropical wave extends across Central America with axis along
86W from 02N-18N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted
along the southern portion of the wave affecting the EPAC waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to
05N27W. The ITCZ extends from 05N27W to 05N35W, then resumes W of
a tropical wave near 05N40W to 05N52W. Aside from the convection
related to the tropical waves described above, scattered showers
are noted along the monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Nestor is over the Gulf of Mexico. See the Special
Features section above for details.

A warm front extends from 28N83W to 29N87W to 29N89W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along this front. Scatterometer data
depicts light to gentle winds prevailing across the western half
of the basin west of 90W.

Nestor will continue racing NE tonight and move inland
near 30.2N 85.2W across the central Florida Panhandle Sat morning,
then continue NE across the SE U.S. Sat through Sun morning,
before emerging across coastal North Carolina and into the W
Atlantic Sun afternoon through evening. Marine conditions will
improve rapidly across the NE portions of the basin Sat night
through Sun as Nestor accelerates off to the NE. A cold front
will reach the NW Gulf Mon night, and extend across the basin
from northern Florida to NE Mexico on Tue night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are analyzed over the basin. See the section
above for details.

Upper-level ridging covers most of the western two-thirds of the
Caribbean Sea. Mostly fair weather is west of 70W, with the
exception of the Yucatan Channel, where showers from the outer
fringes of Nestor are noted. Scatterometer data depicts moderate
trades across the whole basin.

A weak Bermuda high will contribute to moderate to locally fresh
trade winds across most of the the basin through at least mid-
week. Fresh SE winds are likely near the Yucatan Channel through
Sat as Tropical Storm Nestor moves NE across the Gulf of Mexico.
The tropical waves will continue moving west enhancing convection.
No new tropical cyclone activity is expected for the next several
days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are analyzed over the basin. See the section
above for details.

A cold front over the west Atlantic extends from 32N61W to 26N74W,
then continues as a stationary front to 27N80W. Scattered
showers prevail along the fronts. To the east, a surface trough
extends from 27N32W to 22N33W. A 1024 mb surface high is centered
over the east Atlantic near 34N36W.

The frontal system over the west Atlantic should continue
progressing southeastward east of 75W, while the portion west of
75W should dissipate by Sat. Tropical Storm Nestor in the NE Gulf
of Mexico will move NE across the SE United Stats this weekend,
and produce strong to near gale force S to SW winds ahead of it
across NW Atlc waters tonight through Sun afternoon. Weak high
pressure will prevail over the area Mon and Tue. A cold front will
move off the coast of N Florida Tue evening.

$$

ERA
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