[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KNHC 190234
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nestor Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

...RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD INLAND OVER MUCH OF THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA...
...STORM SURGE AND WIND EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 87.0W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Navarre Florida to Yankeetown Florida

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nestor was
located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 87.0 West. Nestor is
moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A turn toward the
east-northeast is expected to occur Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of Nestor will move inland over the Florida Panhandle on
Saturday morning, and will then move across portions of the
southeastern United States later Saturday and Sunday while it
becomes a post-tropical cyclone. Nestor is expected to move offshore
of the coast of North Carolina into the western Atlantic by late
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible tonight before Nestor reaches
the coast. Nestor is forecast to weaken after it moves inland, and
it is expected to lose tropical characteristics and become
post-tropical on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The Air Force Hurricane Hunters recently reported a minimum central
pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft
Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area within the next few hours, and continue
through Saturday afternoon.

Gale-force winds are likely along portions of the Atlantic coast
of the southeastern United States on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Nestor is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible through Saturday morning
across the northern and central Florida Peninsula.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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