[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182327
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
727 PM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2310 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Nestor is centered near 27.0N 88.5W at 18/2100 UTC
or 130 nm SSE of the mouth of The Mississippi River, moving NE at
19 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous strong
convection is located 60 to 270 nm E of the center. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere within 330 nm of the center in
the eastern semicircle, including over the Gulf Coast of Florida
from Ft. Myers to Pensacola. On the forecast track, the center of
Nestor will move inland into the Florida Panhandle by late
Saturday morning, and then continue over portions of the
southeastern U.S. into Sunday as it becomes a post-tropical
cyclone. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC or the website hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W from 12N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-12N
between 32W and the wave axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W from 20N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
over the Lesser Antilles. Scattered showers are elsewhere east of
a line from the Mona Passage to 11.5N69.5W. The ASCAT pass from
late Friday morning showed a localized area of strong SE winds
just east of the wave axis from 13N-15.5N.

A tropical wave extends along 85W from the Gulf of Honduras near
17N southward to the east Pacific near 02N. Isolated moderate
convection is over portions of Central America from Panama to
Nicaragua. Isolated showers are over the SW Caribbean south of 14N
and west of 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to
06N22W to 05N29W. The ITCZ extends from 05N29W to 06N35W, then
resumes W of a tropical wave from 06N39W to 06N48W to 05N52W.
Isolated showers are north of the ITCZ from 05N-10N between 40W-
48W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is along
the west coast of Africa from 08N-12N and east of 16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Nestor is over the Gulf of Mexico. See Special
Features section above for details. A stationary front extends
from West Palm Beach Florida to Venice Florida and becomes a warm
front near 27N83W to 29N87W to 28.5N90W. An upper-level trough is
over the north-central Gulf of Mexico, just to the west of Nestor.
This is producing strong westerly wind shear over Nestor, causing
all the convection to be confined to the east side of Nestor. The
trough is also steering Nestor toward the northeast.

The center of Nestor will move inland near Apalachicola Florida
late Saturday morning with maximum sustained winds predicted to be
near 55 kt. Winds in the NE Gulf of Mexico will then gradually
diminish, decreasing to below 15 kt by sunrise Sunday morning as
Nestor moves farther away. Seas of 15-20 ft are expected tonight
in the NE Gulf. After landfall, seas in the NE Gulf will then
diminish to below 10 ft Saturday evening and to below 8 ft later
Saturday night. A cold front will reach the NW Gulf Mon night, and
extend across the basin from northern Florida to NE Mexico by Tue
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are over the basin. See above.

Upper-level ridging covers most of the western two-thirds of the
Caribbean Sea. Mostly fair weather is west of 70W, with the
exception of the Yucatan Channel, where showers from the outer
fringes of Nestor are seen. An upper-level trough axis is from
10N73W to the Virgin Islands. Scattered moderate convection is
over the Lesser Antilles, due to the influences of upper-level
diffluence and the tropical wave along 65W. Scattered showers are
elsewhere east of a line from the Mona Passage to 11.5N69.5W.
Isolated showers are also over the far SW Caribbean south of 14N
and west of 80W.

Moderate to fresh trade winds are forecast across most of the
basin through at least Wed night. Fresh SE winds are likely near
the Yucatan Channel through Sat as Tropical Storm Nestor moves NE
across the Gulf of Mexico. A tropical wave currently in the E
Caribbean is accompanied by active weather and will move westward
across the central and W Caribbean through early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front over the W Atlantic extends from 32N61W to 27N70W to
26N75W, then continues as a stationary front to West Palm Beach
Florida to Venice Florida. Scattered moderate convection is along
and ahead of the front N of 29N between 55W-65W. Overcast cirrus
clouds from Nestor are spreading east of Florida over the western
Atlantic, with isolated showers seen on radar. An upper-level
trough extends from the Virgin Islands NE to 25N56W. A line of
scattered showers and isolated tstorms is parallel to, but just
east of the upper-trough. The convection is seen within 60 nm of
a line from 18N62W to 23N54W to 31N49W. A 1022 mb surface high is
near 32N40W. However, a large upper-level low centered near 32N37W
is inducing scattered moderate convection in an E-W band along 28N
between 34W-42W and from 28N-32N between 33W-37W. Another trough
well to the south of the Azores is inducing scattered moderate
convection from 25N-29N between 25W-29W.

The W Atlantic front should continue progressing southeastward
east of 75W, while the portion west of 75W should dissipate by
Sat. Tropical Storm Nestor in the central Gulf of Mexico will move
NE across the SE United Stats this weekend, and produce strong to
near gale force S to SW winds ahead of it across NW Atlc waters
tonight through Sun afternoon. Winds to gale force are possible
on Saturday from 30N-31N between 80W-82W. Weak high pressure will
prevail over the area Mon and Tue. A cold front will move off the
coast of N Florida Tue evening.

$$
Hagen
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