[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 180309
HLSMOB
ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-181115-

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Local Statement Advisory Number 3
National Weather Service Mobile AL  AL162019
1009 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

This product covers portions of southwest Alabama...northwest Florida...south
central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.

**DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NOW MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Baldwin Central,
      Baldwin Coastal, Escambia Coastal, Escambia Inland, Mobile
      Central, Mobile Coastal, Okaloosa Coastal, Okaloosa Inland,
      Santa Rosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Inland

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 570 miles southwest of Mobile AL or about 590 miles
      southwest of Pensacola FL
    - 24.1N 93.7W
    - Storm Intensity 40 mph
    - Movement Northeast or 45 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

At 10:00 PM CDT, Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen will continue to
move northeast across the western Gulf of Mexico toward the north
central Gulf tonight and Friday. Maximum sustained winds around and
east of Pensacola Beach are expected to be in the 35-45 mph range
with gusts up to around 55 mph Friday night. Maximum sustained winds
west of Pensacola Beach are expected to be in the 25-35 mph with gusts
up to around 50 mph.

Heavy rainfall will also be possible along and east of I-65 with
rainfall totals forecast between 2 and 4 inches, with isolated higher
amounts possible.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect with inundation of 1 to 2 feet
expected at the time of high tide on both early Friday and Saturday
mornings. A High Surf Advisory also in effect with breaker heights up
to 5 to 8 feet developing tomorrow afternoon along area beaches and
enduring into early Saturday afternoon.

Prepare now for damaging winds, minor coastal flooding, strong rip
currents and heavy rainfall across locations in the Tropical Storm
areas.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
the coastal sections of southwest Alabama and the western Florida
Panhandle. Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.,
little to no impact is anticipated.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts along and east of I-65. Potential impacts include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may become swollen
      and overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

Elsewhere across portions of southwest Alabama...northwest
Florida...south central Alabama...and inland southeast Mississippi.,
little to no impact is anticipated.

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
High surf with breaker heights up to 5 to 8 feet developing tomorrow
afternoon along area beaches will continue into early Saturday
afternoon. This pounding surf will create minor coastal flooding with
inundation of 1 to 2 feet expected at the time of high tide on both
early Friday and Saturday mornings. Minor beach erosion will also
occur through the period. There is a high risk of rip currents
through Sunday morning due to increasing swell height and developing
strong easterly winds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of
strong winds or flooding.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For the latest detailed evacuation and shelter information...please
refer to your local emergency management agency at the phone number
or website listed below.
- Coastal Alabama:
- Baldwin County: 251-972-6807 or
www.baldwincountyal.gov/departments/EMA
- Mobile County: 251-460-8000 or www.mcema.net
- Northwest Florida:
- Escambia County: 850-471-6400 or bereadyescambia.com
- Santa Rosa County: 850-983-5360 www.santarosa.fl.gov/emergency
- Okaloosa County: 850-651-7150 or www.co.okaloosa.fl.us/ps/home
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Mobile AL around 530 AM CDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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