[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161732
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
132 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT FOR SOUTHERN MEXICO...

A broad area of low pressure located just offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico, in the Bay of Campeche, is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development is possible, and a
tropical or subtropical cyclone could form late this week over
the western or central Gulf of Mexico while the system is moving
generally northeastward. Regardless of development, this system
could produce gusty winds, rainfall, and rough surf along portions
of the northern Gulf Coast Friday and Saturday. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system Thursday afternoon, if necessary. There is a medium chance
of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. Please,
read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W, from 11N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
mostly E of the wave axis from 02N-12N between 23W-34W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W, from 19N southward,
moving W at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
mostly E of the wave axis from 11N-19N between 51W-57W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W, from 20N southward,
moving W at 15 knots. Isolated showers are within 120 nm of the
wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to the 1012 mb remnant low of Tropical Depression Fifteen near
17N25W to 08N26W. The ITCZ extends from 08N26W to 06N32W. The ITCZ
resumes W of a tropical wave near 05N35W to the coast of N Brazil
near 03N51W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave
section, Widely scattered moderate convection is along the coast
of W Africa from 03N-10N between 07W-16W. Scattered moderate
convection is N of the ITCZ from 05N-09N between 44W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 16/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from S Louisiana near
30N91W to S Texas near 26N97W. Isolated moderate convection is
within 120 nm of the front. 15-20 kt northerly winds are N of the
front. A 1010 mb low is centered over the Bay of Campeche near
19N95W. A surface trough extends N from the low to 22N95W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 19N-24N
between 93W-98W. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level
high is centered over the SE Gulf of Mexico near 23N85W. Strong
subsidence is over the SE Gulf.

The Gulf cold front will extend from central Florida to near
27N90W to Tampico Mexico Thu morning. The tail end of the front
will transition to a warm front over the NE waters on Fri ahead of
a low pressure over the NE Mexico adjacent waters. This low,
currently supporting heavy showers and tstms over the SW gulf, is
likely to develop into a tropical or subtropical cyclone late this
week over the western or central Gulf of Mexico while the system
is moving generally northeastward. Fresh to strong winds and
building seas are expected in the vicinity of the low over the
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. See above.

The eastern extent of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends
from Costa Rica to N Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is
over the SW Caribbean S of 11N. In the upper levels, the large
upper level high centered over the SE Gulf of Mexico is producing
strong subsidence over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are expected across the
basin through the weekend. The central Caribbean tropical wave
will move W to the W Caribbean on Fri. Little convection is
expected with this wave outside of the SW Caribbean. A new
tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles Thu morning,
the eastern Caribbean on Fri and the central basin on Sat. Showers
and tstms associated with the wave will affect the tropical N
Atlc waters today and the eastern Caribbean Thu through Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1017 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 27N67W. A
surface trough is further E from 32N59W to 21N61W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is mostly E of the trough
axis N of 22N between 52W-61W. A 1025 mb high is centered over the
E Atlantic near 32N36W. A sharp upper level trough is over the
central Atlantic with axis from 32N56W to 22N60W to 19N64W. This
trough is enhancing convection.

A cold front will enter the NW forecast waters Thu morning. Fresh
to strong SW winds ahead of the front and N of 29N will continue
through Thu morning when the front is expected to reach from
30N73W SW to near Palm Bay, Florida. The front will reach from
30N65W to Freeport to near West Palm Beach on Fri morning and from
25N65W to the central Bahamas on Sat.

$$
Formosa
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