[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151744
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
144 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Tropical Depression Fifteen...

Tropical Depression Fifteen is centered near 15.6N 21.6W at
15/1500 UTC or 140 nm E of the Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 8
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 13N-20N between 17W-22W. On
the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to
pass over or near the eastern Cabo Verde Islands later today and
tonight. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
24 hours. Weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday, and the
system is forecast to become a remnant low by Wednesday night or
Thursday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

...Heavy rainfall event for Central America...

A trough of low pressure is producing small area of showers and
thunderstorms over the southern Yucatan peninsula, Belize, and
northern Guatemala. This disturbance and another tropical system
over the eastern Pacific Ocean are expected to produce heavy rains
across a large portion of Central America during the next couple of
days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.  By late Wednesday, the disturbance is forecast
to emerge over the Bay of Campeche and gradually turn northward.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
some development towards the end of the week when the system is
located over the western Gulf of Mexico. See the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic along 28W from 10N
southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted
in model guidance. Isolated moderate convection is from 01N- 08N
between 20W-28W.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 52W from 18N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1010 mb low is embedded on the
wave axis near 12N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-
17N between 47W-56W.

A tropical wave entering the Caribbean Sea is along 66W from 20N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. This wave is well depicted in model
guidance. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the
wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The ITCZ extends west of a tropical wave from 05N30W to 04N44W to
the coast of N Venezuela near 03N51W. Aside from the convection
related to the tropical waves, isolated moderate convection is
from 04N-09N between 33W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 15/1500 UTC a stationary front extends over the Florida
Panhandle from 31N83W to beyond 31N88W. Scattered showers are
within 120 nm of the front. Further south, a surface trough is
over the Bay of Campeche 21N93W to 17N91W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 18N-21N between 93W-96W. A second trough is
over the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N89W to 17N88W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 18N-21N between 88W-90W. Of note in
the upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over the
Gulf near 23N91W. Strong subsidence covers most of the Gulf
supporting fair weather. Scatterometer data depicts light to
gentle easterly winds across the basin.

A stationary front across the northern Gulf waters will drift
northward and dissipate by late tonight. Return gentle to
moderate flow is expected ahead of the next cold front over the
NW gulf waters on Wed morning. The front will extend from 28N82W
to the north-central basin near 27N90W to Tampico adjacent waters
by Thu morning. On Fri, the cold front will extend from near
26N82W to 26N86W where it will transition to a warm front
connected to a developing low near 27N91W. A stationary front and
a surface trough will extend from the low SW towards the Bay of
Campeche. Showers and tstms are expected across the basin with
this frontal system.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for information about
the heavy rainfall event currently occurring over Central America
and the southwest Caribbean, and the tropical wave over the
eastern Caribbean.

Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the
basin. Isolated moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean
south of 19N and west of 75W.

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean will move to the
central basin on Wed and across the SW basin Thu and Fri. The next
tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles on Thu and
over the eastern Caribbean Fri accompanied with showers and tstms
continuing over the weekend as the wave enters the central basin.
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds are expected across the
basin during the entire period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for information on
T.D. Fifteen, and the tropical waves moving across the basin.

A 1020 mb high is over the west Atlantic near 30N76W. To the
east, a surface trough extends from 31N60W to 23N62W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 90 nm of the trough. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a
1026 mb high centered near 33N35W.

Over the W Atlantic, weak high pressure is expected ahead of a
cold front Thu morning. Fresh to near gale force winds are
expected across the forecast waters N of 29N through Thu morning.
The cold front will reach from 30N65W to N of Freeport to the east
coast of Florida near 26N80W, and move east of the area by Sat.

$$
Formosa
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