[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
646 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Tropical Depression Fifteen...

The Tropical Depression Fifteen is located at 14.5N 20.8W, moving
towards the NW at 8 kt. TD Fifteen has max winds of 30 kt and
gusts up to 40 kt. Estimated central pressure is 1006 mb.
Scattered moderate convection is seen 350 nm of the center. On the
forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to pass
over or near the eastern Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday, and then
move near or north of the central Cabo Verde Islands Tuesday night
and Wednesday. Slight strengthening is possible during the next
day or so, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical
storm on Tuesday. Weakening is forecast to begin by Wednesday
morning when the cyclone will be moving away from the Cabo Verde
Islands. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

...Heavy rainfall event for Central America...

A trough of low pressure located over portions of Central America
and the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system and another disturbance
over the eastern Pacific are expected to produce heavy rains over
a large portion of Central America during the next couple of days,
which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous
areas. By late Wednesday, the system is forecast to emerge over
the Bay of Campeche and then turn northward, and environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some
development towards the end of the week when the system is over
the western Gulf of Mexico. See the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic along 25W from 10N
southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is depicted well
in model guidance. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity
of the wave axis.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 51W from 18N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted in
model guidance. A 1010 mb low pressure is east of the wave near
12N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the low from
11N-13N between 48W-54W.

A tropical wave entering the Caribbean Sea is along 62W from 20N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well depicted in
model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of
12N in the coastal areas of Guyana and Venezuela, and to the
north from 15N-21N between 61W-65W near the U.S. Virgin Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough gets cut off from Senegal near the coast of
Africa and begins south of T.D. Fifteen from 07N22W to 04N36W.
The ITCZ extends from 04N36W to 04N49W. Aside from the convection
related to the tropical wave, scattered showers are noted along
the boundaries.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the Gulf coastline between
86W-94W. Scattered showers are within the boundary. Further
south, a surface trough over the Bay of Campeche and a second
trough over the Yucatan Peninsula. Both of the trough are
enhancing scattered moderate convection in the region, from
south of 21N and west of 91W. Strong subsidence covers most of
the Gulf supporting fair weather. Scatterometer data depicts
light to gentle easterly winds across the basin with moderate
northeast winds over the Bay east of the trough axis.

A stationary front across the northern Gulf waters will drift
northward and dissipate by late tonight. A cold front will push
into the northern Gulf Wed, then become stationary from central
Florida to southern Texas on Thu. A broad low pressure area over
Central America will drift northward ahead of the front into the
Bay of Campeche Wed, accompanied by widespread showers and a few
thunderstorms.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for information about
the heavy rainfall event currently occurring over Central America
and the southwest Caribbean and the tropical wave entering the
eastern Caribbean.

Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the
basin. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over
the SW Caribbean south of 19N and west of 75W.

Broad low pressure over Central America will move NW into the
southern Gulf of Mexico Wed. Fresh SE winds, widespread showers
and isolated thunderstorms are likely in the NW Caribbean north of
Honduras through tonight. A tropical wave will move across the
Tropical N Atlantic through Wed night, then across the eastern
Caribbean Thu and Fri, accompanied by scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for information on
T.D. Fifteen and the tropical waves moving across the basin.

A 1018 mb high is over the west Atlantic near 31N69W. To the
east, a surface trough extends from 29N60W to 23N63W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted in the vicinity of
the wave, from 21N-31N between 58W-61W. Scattered moderate
convection is also noted to the east of the trough from 20N-27N
between 52W-57W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of
the basin, anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 33N35W.

A cold front will move off the coast of southern Georgia Wed
night, reach from 30N65W to central Florida by Fri morning, then
stall and weaken Sat. An area of fresh to strong SW winds ahead of
the front on Wed will lift N of the area Thu.

$$
Torres
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