[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142355
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
755 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Tropical wave over the east Atlantic...

A tropical wave extends across the east Atlantic, with axis along
20N from 04N-20N. A 1006 mb low is analyzed within the wave area
near 13N20W. As of 14/2100 UTC, this system has become T.D.
Fifteen. T.D Fifteen is moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt
with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
10N-18N between 16W-24W. On the forecast track, the center of the
depression is expected to pass over or near the eastern Cabo
Verde Islands on Tuesday, and pass near the central portion of
those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. See the latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35
KNHC for more details.

...Heavy rainfall event for Central America...

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern
Caribbean, Gulf of Honduras, and parts of Central America are
associated with a broad area of low pressure located inland over
northwestern Honduras. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted south of 20N between 79W-92W. This system will
move west- northwestward across southern Belize, northern
Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next couple of days,
preventing tropical cyclone formation during that time. By
Wednesday, however, the low is forecast to emerge over the
southern Bay of Campeche where conditions could become a little
more conducive for some further organization to occur. Regardless
of development, this system is expected to produce heavy rains
over a large portion of Central America during the next few days,
which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas. See the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 16N48W to an embedded 1010 mb low near 10N49W to 07N50W. The
wave is moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave is noted depicted well
in model guidance. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-16N
between 43W-53W.

A tropical wave is over the east Caribbean with axis along 62W
from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well
depicted in model guidance as well. Scattered moderate convection
is noted along the northern portion of the wave affecting the
Leeward Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W
to 12N23W to 07N28W to 07N37W. The ITCZ continues from that point
to 09N46W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical
wave, scattered showers are noted along the boundaries between
32W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across the Gulf coastline between
86W-95W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Further
south, a surface trough over the Bay of Campeche extends from
25N92W to 22N93W. Strong subsidence covers most of the Gulf
supporting fair weather. Scatterometer data depicts light to
gentle easterly winds across the basin.

The front will lift northward away from the Gulf area as a warm
front. Weak high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will
maintain tranquil conditions over the basin through Tue night.
The next cold front will push into the northern Gulf waters on
Wed, reach from near Ceder Key, Florida to near 26N90W and
stationary to the lower Texas coast late Wed. The cold front will
become stationary on Thu from near Fort Myers to near 26N90W and
to near northeastern Mexico. A broad area of low pressure
currently over central America expected to move across Central
America and over the Bay of Campeche by Wed. Showers and
thunderstorms will accompany this area of low pressure.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for information about
the heavy rainfall event currently occurring over Central America
and the southwest Caribbean and the tropical wave entering the
eastern Caribbean.

Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across the
basin. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over
the SW Caribbean south of 18N and west of 79W.

The broad low over the western Caribbean will slowly move west-
northwestward across Central America through Tue night and into
the southern Gulf of Mexico late Tue night and Wed. Fresh to
strong E to SE winds are likely mainly over the NW part of the
Caribbean between the Yucatan Peninsula and Honduras tonight and
Tue as a surface trough forms on the east side of the low pressure
in that general area. Showers and thunderstorms over much of the
western Caribbean are expected to persist through early Wed. A
tropical wave will move across the Tropical N Atlantic Tue through
late Wed night, then across the eastern Caribbean Sea Thu through
Fri night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected to accompany this wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section above for information on
T.D. Fifteen and the tropical waves moving across the basin.

A 1019 mb high is over the west Atlantic near 30N75W. To the east,
a surface trough extends from 32N59W to 29N61W. Another trough is
analyzed from 25N60W to 21N61W. The second wave is enhancing
convection from from 20N-25N between 54W-64W. Surface ridging
prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1018 mb
high centered near 34N33W.

A weak pressure pattern will maintain quiescent conditions
through Tue night. Moderate to strong SW winds will develop over
the NW forecast waters early on Wed in advance of the next cold
front. This cold front will reach the far NW part of the area Wed
evening, then reach from near 31N75W to Cape Canaveral late Wed
night, from near 31N73W to Stuart, Florida early Thu. The front
will weaken as it reaches from near 31N64W to 27N73W Fri, then the
front will dissipate W of 65W. The area of fresh to strong SW
winds ahead of the front will lift N of the area Thu. Moderate to
fresh NW to N winds behind the front Wed night will become gentle
to moderate N to NE winds by Fri.

$$

ERA
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